Vivek Ramaswamy is doing worse with Ohio's independent voters than any Republican nominee for governor in the state this century, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, as Democrat Amy Acton holds a narrow but steady lead two weeks before Election Day.
Enten said on CNN on Monday that Ramaswamy's net rating among independents had fallen to minus 25 across the survey data he reviewed, the lowest mark he found for a GOP gubernatorial nominee in Ohio since 2000.
The finding adds to a run of bad numbers for Ramaswamy, the biotech entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate who entered the race with President Donald Trump's endorsement in a state Trump carried three times by 8 to 11 points.
If Ramaswamy loses, Democrats will win the Ohio governor's office for the first time since 2006. It would also be among the starkest signs yet of how badly the midterm climate has turned for Republicans.
Newsweek reached out to Ramaswamy and Acton's campaigns for comment Monday.
Enten Says the Race Has 'Flipped'
Ramaswamy led by about 4 points on average in 2025 polling, Enten told viewers. In his words, the race "has flipped from Ramaswamy over to Amy Acton, who's now up by 4 points in the polls."
Independents account for most of the swing, by his account. Enten combined figures from several surveys and landed on a net rating of minus 25 for Ramaswamy with those voters.
"No one has ever been this low if you're a GOP gubernatorial nominee in Ohio. No one has been this low except for Vivek Ramaswamy," Enten said. "The worst this century!"
Ken Blackwell, the 2006 Republican nominee, falls inside that stretch. He lost to Democrat Ted Strickland by more than 20 points in the last Ohio governor's race Democrats won. Republicans have kept the office since, with John Kasich winning twice and Mike DeWine, now term-limited, winning in 2018 and 2022.
Enten has hammered on Republican trouble with independents all cycle, and he usually ties it to prices. On Sunday, he pointed to an ABC News/Washington Post poll that had President Donald Trump 52 points underwater on inflation.
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What the Polls and Forecasts Show in Ohio
Most public surveys since late summer have Acton ahead, usually by a few points and often inside the margin of error.
Bowling Green State University's latest poll with YouGov, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 29 to October 9, showed Acton leading 50 percent to 44 percent. Her lead was 3 points in the same poll a month earlier.
A CNN/SSRS poll gave Acton her biggest recent lead, 50 percent to 42 percent, among 760 likely voters surveyed from September 29 to October 5. She led among independents by 27 points. She also won 7 percent of Republicans, more than three times the 2 percent of Democrats who backed Ramaswamy.
The New York Times/Siena College poll showed Acton ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. Suffolk University put her lead at 9 points, while Marist found a 6-point lead among registered voters.
Ramaswamy's strongest results came from Republican pollsters. A co/efficient poll of 925 likely voters conducted October 5 and 6 put him ahead 45 percent to 43 percent, with Libertarian Don Kissick at 3 percent and 8 percent undecided. Big Data Poll also gave him a 1-point lead in late September.
Acton leads the RealClearPolling average by 3.5 points, 48.2 percent to 44.7 percent, up from a 1-point lead in late September. Decision Desk HQ puts her lead at about 4 points.
The race looked different a year ago. A September 2025 poll for the Ohio Federation of Teachers showed the candidates within 1 point, while Enten cited a 2025 polling average that put Ramaswamy ahead.
Despite Acton's recent polling gains, many Ohioans still expect Ramaswamy to win. In the Bowling Green poll, 55 percent said he would win regardless of their own preference, down from 62 percent in September. Ramaswamy's net favorability rating was minus 10, compared with minus 1 for Acton. And 51 percent said Ramaswamy had run more negative ads.
The race has also tightened in election forecasts. Cook Political Report shifted it from Lean Republican to Toss-up in July, and Sabato's Crystal Ball now also rates it a Toss-up.
What Prediction Markets Show
Kalshi had Acton at 69 percent to win as of Monday, with Ramaswamy at 31 percent and about $2.8 million traded. Polymarket priced her at 72 percent last week.
Almost a year ago, in November 2025, Kalshi gave Republicans roughly a 65 percent chance of keeping the governorship, and Polymarket had them near 68 percent. Ramaswamy was still around 62 percent on both platforms in early March.
Acton overtook him after the May primary, when Kalshi listed her at 55 percent. Ramaswamy briefly reclaimed a narrow edge on Kalshi in mid-August before falling behind again. By early September, Acton stood at 59 percent on Kalshi and 57 percent on Polymarket.
Ramaswamy Pushes Back as Early Voting Begins
Ramaswamy says the race isn't slipping. Over the summer, he told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that good public polling had become hard to find, and that he was glad to see Republicans feeling some urgency. Some in his party now argue the polls could miss by just enough to save him, Time reported Monday.
Evan Machan, Ramaswamy spokesperson, told The Cincinnati Enquirer in August: "Families across Ohio were kept from dying loved ones because of Amy Acton's COVID lockdown policies." The campaign's attacks center on her time as state health director, when she oversaw school closures and stay-at-home orders under DeWine.
Acton, a physician who has never held elected office, has built her pitch around affordability. She has also hammered Ramaswamy over his wealth and use of a private jet to travel the state.
The governor's race shares the ballot with Ohio's U.S. Senate contest, where Democrat Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted. The Bowling Green poll had Brown ahead by 6 points, while co/efficient found Husted up by 1.
Early voting is underway in Ohio, and no debate between the two candidates is scheduled. Election Day is November 3.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins