OPEC cuts India’s 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 40,000 barrels per day

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for India’s oil demand growth in 2026 to 40,000 barrels per day (b/d), from 60,000 b/d projected in its September report.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, India’s oil demand is expected to rise by around 40,000 b/d to 5.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, according to OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report.

OPEC has also trimmed its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 0.2 mb/d, down from 0.4 mb/d estimated in its previous assessment. However, it has raised its projection for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.6 mb/d, from 2.4 mb/d forecast last month.

Its outlook for India’s oil demand growth in 2027 remains unchanged.

Transportation fuels to drive demand

Transportation fuels, particularly gasoline and diesel, are expected to remain the primary drivers of India’s oil demand growth in 2026.

“Gasoline is expected to be supported by heightened road mobility amid robust vehicle sales. Diesel demand is anticipated to gain additional support from strong manufacturing and agricultural activity,” OPEC said.

The report also projects an increase in demand for residual fuel during the year, while jet fuel consumption is expected to register marginal growth.

In contrast, demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha is expected to ease, OPEC said.