Elon Musk paired the words Tesla x SpaceX with the Roadster livestream link, reviving Tesla SpaceX merger speculation. Polymarket bettors, meanwhile, give the car a 60% chance of a Roadster flying for one second or more.
Neither Tesla (TSLA) nor SpaceX (SPCX) has confirmed merger talks, but the post lands as analysts openly debate a deal. The demo of Tesla’s Roadster sports car, unveiled in 2017, reportedly leans on SpaceX thrusters, putting both brands on stage.
Why Does Tesla SpaceX Merger Talk Keep Returning?
SpaceX’s push toward a Nasdaq listing brought the merger question back in May.
SpaceX then went public on June 12 at $135 a share, a $1.77 trillion valuation. It was the largest initial public offering (IPO) on record.
SpaceX closed October 14 at a $2.07 trillion market value, while Tesla shares are down about 18% this year.
SpaceX stock peaked at $225.64 within days of the debut, then slid.
SpaceX also absorbed Musk’s AI company xAI in February.
Barclays thinks the likelier route is SpaceX buying Tesla with stock. That would leave Musk with roughly 37% of the equity and 56% of the votes.
The bank sees the gains in integration, not financial engineering. It points to Tesla’s robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots joining SpaceX’s AI work.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives made a Tesla-SpaceX merger forecast of better than 80% odds by 2027.
Musk, however, said on Tesla’s July earnings call that any combination would need a proper process.
Tesla x SpaceX https://t.co/jJ438jodlY
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 16, 2026
Will a Flying Roadster Steal the Merger Spotlight?
Polymarket posted a photo of a backward-curving ramp at the venue, flagging speculation about a high-speed stunt.
JUST IN: Tesla has erected a towering, backward-curving ramp at tonight's Roadster event, raising speculation about a possible high-speed stunt. pic.twitter.com/qz9eVc1VwE
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 15, 2026
Reports say a remotely operated Roadster will hover on SpaceX thrusters that fire compressed gas.
Historically, Wall Street has punished Tesla’s past reveals. Shares fell after the Cybertruck, the 2024 Cybercab robotaxi and a September Cybercab event.
Barclays says a deal could surface before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, which must be held by December 6, Bloomberg reported.
A flight would settle the Polymarket market, but only a filing would settle the merger. Either way, markets must price a founder who leads two trillion-dollar public companies.
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