The Social Democrats' recent rise in the polls may reflect voters growing disillusioned with their preferred parties, while Isamaa's declining support could be linked to a lack of fresh ideas, a political analyst says.
Why have the Social Democrats gained ground?
One important factor that has remained unchanged for many years is that the Social Democrats are the second choice for quite a few people. They have another favorite party, but the Social Democrats would be their next choice.
Perhaps we are now in a situation where a large number of people no longer see their first choice as a good option. That could just as easily change again as we get closer to the elections.
So is that first choice the liberal Reform Party, meaning the liberal Social Democratic Party is winning over its voters?
Quite possibly. We do try to distinguish between parties based on which are liberal and which are not, but I think that distinction is no longer as clear as it was years ago. We have seen parties pursue policies that are very difficult to reconcile with their former image.
That may be one reason why people feel their first choice is not particularly appealing right now. Looking at the changes in Emor's polling, they have been quite sharp. We probably need a little more time to see whether this is a lasting shift.
Riina Solman (Isamaa) says the Social Democrats will run out of steam by March, but what is behind Isamaa's decline? Have they run out of steam themselves, with no new ideas or new faces?
Perhaps to some extent. But maybe this is simply an interim period with a little less news, because they really haven't introduced any new issues. As for new faces, though, that doesn't mean they haven't reached agreements with people that we know nothing about.
We didn't know the Social Democrats had reached an agreement with Jonatan Vseviov either. Such decisions are usually announced at a tactically opportune moment. We may yet see new names emerge from other parties as well, which could change the situation again.
Is Jonatan Vseviov a good candidate for prime minister? Will he boost the Social Democrats' support?
Why wouldn't he be? The fact is that we know relatively little about him at the moment and people who don't follow politics on a daily basis know even less. Those who do follow politics are probably familiar with his views on security, defense and foreign policy. But when someone becomes a candidate for prime minister, they have to take positions on a very wide range of issues and we still know very little about where he stands on those.
How much time is left to generate excitement with electoral candidate lists? The lists will soon have to be finalized, campaigns will have to get underway and the battles over places on the lists will have to be settled.
Perhaps some of those battles have already been settled. The final fine-tuning of the lists may continue for a while, but I believe the top spots in some electoral districts have already been decided. There may simply be some names we don't know yet. Only a couple of parties have launched campaigns on a larger scale, so we've really only seen the opening moves so far.
The last election seemed to be a contest between two parties, with voters having to choose between them. Will the message of this election be about who can attack the Reform Party the hardest?
That will certainly be part of it.
Isamaa is undoubtedly counting on economic issues, although that is becoming a little more complicated.
The current budget debates in the Riigikogu already show that the Reform Party has concrete figures and facts demonstrating that the situation is improving. Admittedly, the deficit and government debt remain issues. But I think virtually every party currently represented in the Riigikogu has contributed substantially to that. They have all had a chance to govern and have happily added to the debt, so that may be a difficult issue to campaign on.
We may also see security issues return to the forefront, but I just hope they don't become a major political battleground.
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