The Briefing:
- A California State Auditor report released October 13 found 57 dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition, including 40 rated high or extremely high hazard, most of them clustered near Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Bay Area.
- If the worst-case scenario unfolds, failures at those 40 highest-risk structures could collectively endanger up to 1.5 million people and trigger more than $265 billion in economic damage—with repair costs estimated at $28 billion statewide and no dedicated funding mechanism in place.
- Despite gaining enforcement authority after the 2017 Oroville Dam crisis, the Department of Water Resources has never filed a formal punitive action against a noncompliant dam owner, even as forecasters warn of a potentially record-strength El Niño winter bearing down on the state.
A System Exposed Before the First Storm Hits
With a potentially record-strength El Niño winter bearing down on California, a state audit released this week put a stark number on one of the state's most underreported safety threats: 57 dams currently rated in poor or unsatisfactory condition, many of them aging structures sitting upstream from millions of Californians. The timing could hardly be more alarming. Federal forecasters now put the odds of a very strong El Niño at over 90 percent, and the infrastructure meant to contain the runoff is, in too many places, barely holding together.
The California State Auditor's report, published October 13, declined to name the specific dams for security reasons. But it made clear that geography is working against the public: the most degraded structures are concentrated near high-population zones including Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Bay Area. Should the worst-case scenario materialize, the consequences would be catastrophic. According to the auditor's projections, failures at the 40 highest-risk dams could collectively put 1.5 million people in harm's way and generate more than $265 billion in economic losses.
When Concrete Gets Too Old to Fix
The report details conditions that go well beyond routine wear. One dam, described as more than a century old, has reached a point of no return: its concrete has deteriorated so severely that attempting repairs would further weaken the structure itself. The same dam is also identified as seismically unstable, leaving it exposed on two fronts—a major earthquake or a particularly heavy storm could each prove catastrophic to its integrity.
That case is not isolated. Several dams across the state have been flagged as deficient for at least nine years. One was identified as vulnerable to flood events as far back as 2017—the same year a near-disaster at the Oroville Dam spillway forced the evacuation of about 188,000 downstream residents and prompted state lawmakers to dramatically expand the Department of Water Resources' oversight powers. Nearly a decade later, only some repairs have been made—the owner has since opted for full replacement, but lost its primary funding source, leaving the project stalled.
The $28 Billion Repair Bill Nobody Is Paying
The financial scale of the problem is as daunting as the structural one. Bringing California's approximately 1,222 regulated dams up to standard over the next five years would cost more than $28 billion, according to the Department of Water Resources—a figure that dwarfs available public funding. Repairing a single dam can easily exceed $100 million, a sum that routinely surpasses what any local water district or municipality can absorb on its own.
Most of these structures are not state-owned. They belong to a fragmented constellation of local agencies, utilities, and private companies, including Pacific Gas & Electric. A critical gap in the legal framework compounds the problem: California law does not obligate dam owners to maintain a financial reserve for large-scale repairs, nor to develop formal remediation plans. Owners are required to maintain their infrastructure, but the law imposes no mandated savings requirement to back that up—leaving emergency response largely reactive rather than preventive.
A Governor's Veto and a Missing Safety Net
The same funding vacuum extends to the levee level. Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill last month that would have created a $300 million annual repair fund for levees in the California Delta, arguing that $170 million in already-allocated state funds was sufficient. The Delta Stewardship Council estimates that fully addressing the Delta's levee needs will require approximately $3.24 billion—a gap of nearly $3 billion that the governor's veto leaves unresolved.
Enforcement Authority With Nothing to Show
The state auditor leveled pointed criticism at the Department of Water Resources, the agency that gained expanded authority after the Oroville crisis. The office found that the department has not fully exercised the enforcement powers granted to it in 2017, and that dam owners who fail to meet safety requirements have faced no punitive consequences. Since the Legislature gave the agency authority to file administrative complaints carrying penalties, fines, and property liens nine years ago, not a single such complaint has been filed against a noncompliant owner.
In its written response to the audit, the Department of Water Resources pushed back, accusing the auditors of "a fundamental lack of understanding of the complexities of flood management in California's Central Valley and dam safety statewide." The department noted that an independent assessment from the Association of State Dam Safety Officials found California's program to be "the leading state dam safety program in the nation." It also argued that some dams labeled deficient were not structurally degraded—many, the department maintained, simply hadn't been updated to reflect newer, more stringent safety thresholds.
What the Auditor Is Demanding
The auditor's office set out several recommendations for both the Department of Water Resources and the Legislature. Among the most significant: granting the agency authority to order the condemnation or decommissioning of dams when other enforcement tools have been exhausted; allowing the department to charge dam owners fees to fund its oversight operations; and requiring owners to build and maintain dedicated financial reserves for emergency maintenance and large-scale repairs.
Inspections Continue—But Repairs Don't
The Newsom administration has notified dam owners statewide to prepare for potential El Niño-related storms and says the Division of Safety of Dams conducts annual inspections of all high- and extremely high-hazard dams. Whether those inspections translate into faster remediation under the incoming pressure of an exceptionally wet winter remains the central, unanswered question.
For communities living in the shadow of these structures, the audit arrives not as a warning about some distant future risk—but as a description of a present one.
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