21h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.
Summarize this article with:
American bitcoin ETFs have just gone through two difficult weeks, with nearly $910 million in net outflows. At the same time, the BTC price has fallen back below the estimated average purchase price of their investors. Enough to test their patience, as the month of October, initially promising, sinks into the red.
In Brief
- American bitcoin ETFs recorded $228.6 million in net outflows last week, after $681.1 million the previous week.
- Since the beginning of the month, their balance shows about $615 million in net withdrawals.
- On Friday, bitcoin traded around $81,590, below the estimated average purchase cost of ETF holders, close to $82,300.
Bitcoin ETFs, nearly one billion dollars withdrawn in two weeks
Investors continue to withdraw their money from American bitcoin ETFs. Last week, these funds lost $228.6 million, after a first week marked by $681.1 million in net outflows.
The session details nevertheless show some rebound attempts. On Tuesday, the funds attracted $175.7 million. On Thursday, they recorded a slight positive balance of $5.1 million. But on Wednesday, withdrawals reached $261.4 million, erasing part of these inflows.
Consequently, October now displays a negative balance of about $615 million, although the month had started on a positive note, with $293 million inflows. The reversal notably accelerated on October 7, when investors withdrew $484.9 million in a single session.
Yet some analysts continue to foresee a rise of BTC towards $87,000, or even $90,000, thanks to the formation of an ascending triangle. ETF outflows nonetheless remind that not all investors share this optimism.
A threshold that could weaken investors
The BTC price adds a difficulty. On Thursday, it briefly dipped below $80,000 before rising again. On Friday, it hovered around $81,590, still below the estimated average purchase price of ETF holders, around $82,300 according to Nexo.
This level is not an absolute technical threshold. However, it remains important for investors’ morale: when their investment goes into the red, some prefer to sell rather than risk further losses.
The pressure has also spread to derivative markets. According to data from CoinGlass, nearly $950 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, about 90% of which corresponded to bullish bets.
Inflation and rates, a less favorable context for BTC
The economic situation also complicates the outlook. In September, US inflation reached 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the anticipated 3.6%. This surprise rekindled concerns about interest rates.
Higher bond yields make traditional investments more attractive and can divert capital from risky assets like bitcoin.
Nevertheless, the overall balance remains positive in the long term. Since their launch in January 2024, American bitcoin ETFs have accumulated roughly $57.3 billion in net inflows, with nearly $104 billion in assets. Ether and Solana ETFs have also finished this period in the red.
The rest will depend on investors’ reactions. Some may sell to limit their losses, while others will take advantage of the dip to buy. This will notably depend on the evolution of inflation and rate expectations.
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Fenelon L.
Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.