Morgan Stanley expects the tokenized assets market to reach $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2030, but its own trading rollout is moving more slowly. On October 12, 2026, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Amy Oldenburg, backed that forecast while pushing the expected start of tokenized equity support to the first quarter of 2027.
Key takeaways
- Morgan Stanley’s 2030 estimate exceeds its September 2026 base case of $2.3 trillion.
- Tokenized US Treasuries account for more than one-third of the current market.
- The bank needs more available products and institutional demand before enabling tokenized equity trading.
According to Crypto Briefing, the market for tokenized real-world assets currently totals approximately $38.6 billion to $40 billion. Oldenburg discussed the forecast at TOKEN2049, pairing confidence in long-term growth with a more cautious assessment of product availability.
In her interview with The Block, she said: “We’ll definitely be within that range without question.”
Morgan Stanley raises its tokenized assets market outlook
The $3 trillion to $10 trillion range for 2030 is above Morgan Stanley’s published base-case forecast from September 2026. That earlier estimate put the market at $2.3 trillion by the same year.
Even the lower end of Oldenburg’s conference estimate exceeds the previous base case. The upper end is more than four times that benchmark, marking a substantial difference between the bank’s September projection and the range she endorsed in October.
Treasuries lead the market as collateral use expands
Tokenized US Treasuries represent approximately $14.6 billion, accounting for more than one-third of the current tokenized real-world asset market. Government debt is the market’s largest single segment.
Morgan Stanley’s research also identifies two sizable applications by 2030: $1.7 trillion in total collateral mobility and $400 billion in treasury management. These forecasts describe specific financial uses alongside the broader market-size estimate.
Oldenburg told The Block that wider asset availability would also create opportunities to use tokenized holdings as collateral. She identified operationally complex investments, not only publicly traded shares, as areas where blockchain-based systems can reduce administrative work.
Institutional interest and infrastructure underpin growth
Oldenburg identified private shares, structured notes and investment funds as candidates for tokenization-driven efficiency gains. Blockchain could reduce paperwork and simplify the processes involved in ownership, transfers and access to private funds.
She linked expected growth in the tokenized assets market to rising institutional interest. In the interview, she described a surge in industry announcements over the preceding 12 months and financial institutions’ growing concern about missing opportunities.
The bank is building infrastructure alongside that interest. Its work includes proprietary wallets for customers holding tokenized assets and financial products, while its Digital Asset Lab tests the technologies needed to support potential offerings before they enter production.
Oldenburg described tokenization as an extension of the bank’s existing equities, derivatives and swaps business. Its approach accommodates clients holding investments in both traditional and blockchain-based formats.
Tokenized equity support moves to early 2027
Morgan Stanley now expects to support tokenized equities on its alternative trading system, or ATS, in the first quarter of 2027. That replaces the second-half-of-2026 window Oldenburg indicated in March.
The ATS matches orders outside public exchanges. Oldenburg said the team continues to build the necessary infrastructure, but suitable tokenized securities must be available before customers can trade them through the venue.
“We need product in order to be able to support them within the ATS,” she told The Block. She attributed limited client demand partly to the absence of those products, explaining why the bank needs more time before activating support.
Oldenburg also pointed to DTCC’s tokenization service, slated to launch at the end of October 2026, as a milestone the bank is watching. Morgan Stanley’s revised window for its own tokenized equity support is the first quarter of 2027.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.