Bulgaria will vote for president as Ukraine and Black Sea drone attacks dominate campaign

SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — Bulgarians will vote for a new president on Sunday following an election campaign that was focused mainly on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the widening hostilities in the Black Sea, on Bulgaria’s doorstep, including deadly drone attacks on commercial vessels.

Candidates are also addressing public fears about the steep rise in energy prices and surging inflation, with many Bulgarians in rural areas struggling to make ends meet.

Bulgaria’s presidency is primarily ceremonial. Although the head of state has no executive powers, and all major policies must be approved by Parliament, direct election gives the president greater political authority. The president leads the armed forces and can veto legislation, signs international treaties and appoints ambassadors.

Presidents in Bulgaria are elected directly for a five-year term and can serve no more than two terms.

The election is expected to go into a runoff

Analysts expect none of the 27 candidates to win outright on Sunday. Turnout must be above 50% of 6.6 million registered voters and the winner needs a majority of the votes. Sunday’s turnout is expected to be less than 40%, which means a runoff on Nov. 1.

Incumbent Iliana Yotova, a 62-year-old journalist and former member of the European Parliament, is a front-runner. She previously served as vice president under Rumen Radev, the current prime minister, during his two terms as head of state. She took over the presidency in January 2026, when Radev stepped down to run for parliament, and is seeking her own mandate.

Radev’s center-left Progressive Bulgaria party won a landslide victory in April’s general election. Yotova is running as an independent, but also has the official backing of Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialist Party, where her career began.

Her main challenger is economist Andrei Gyurov, a former deputy governor of the central bank and caretaker prime minister who led the country in the early months of 2026. He is supported by the pro-Western reformist opposition. Observers believe his best chance of winning would come in a runoff.

Relations with Russia and Western partners are at stake

Yotova’s victory would keep the presidency in the hands of the ruling majority, a departure from the country’s post-communist history.

The Balkan country joined NATO in 2004 and the European Union in 2007, and while there is a broad consensus among the parties in Parliament on the country’s pro-Western path, widespread pro-Russian sentiments based on traditional historical and cultural ties with Russia have divided society, particularly since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine.

Radev has often stated that he would keep Bulgaria on its European path but at the same time he has called for improved relations with Russia and the lifting of sanctions. Analysts expect Yotova to continue Radev’s policy.

Dobromir Zhivkov, managing director of Market Links polling agency, said that Yotova belongs to the political class that advocates a more neutral position for Bulgaria.

“They call for an end to aid for Ukraine and a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine; we often hear them use Kremlin rhetoric and terminology borrowed directly from Kremlin propaganda” he told The Associated Press.

Addressing supporters at a rally this week, Yotova said that one of the main points of divergence from her opponents was the war in Ukraine. She said she advocated for peace through negotiations, rather than force.

“Do we want the Black Sea to become a closed military zone? We will categorically not agree to such a decision. I will not accept this warmongering,” she said.

A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has raised concerns over Russia’s intentions to escalate the conflict. The attacks in the two countries’ exclusive economic zones threaten a global shipping route and have left two people dead, with at least 25 still missing. They also run the risk of drawing other countries directly into the war for Ukraine.

A survey gives Yotova an edge

A poll conducted Oct. 13-19 by Market Links gave Yotova 47.3% versus Gyurov’s 30.6%. The poll was conducted among 1,006 Bulgarians and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

If she wins, Yotova would become Bulgaria’s first elected female president.