Converging signals: Nagaland must reckon with its structural unemployment

Moa JamirThree official reports released within a year, though measuring different aspects of economic life, converge on a common concern: Nagaland’s employment challenge is structural and demands more than piecemeal interventions. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2025, the State’s Survey Report on Employment, Unemployment, Skill and Migration in Nagaland 2025, and the latest National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) offer complementary perspectives on jobs, skills and livelihood-seeking.Released in March 2026, the PLFS places Nagaland’s labour market in a national context. The State’s Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), whose survey was released in September 2025, provides a closer view of local conditions. The NHTS adds another dimension through household travel patterns, including journeys related to employment and job-seeking.The DES survey estimated unemployment at 16.07%, or roughly one in six working-age people. It also found that 92% of respondents had no technical or vocational training, 78% of workers had no prior work experience, and around 65% lacked written job contracts. These findings point to weaknesses extending beyond job availability to skills, work experience and employment security.The NHTS reinforces the concern, although it is not an unemployment survey. Among reported overnight-trip purposes, seeking employment or setting up a business accounted for 6.2%, while unpaid domestic services accounted for 9.3%—the highest share among States and Union Territories. These figures do not measure unemployment, but illustrate how livelihood-seeking and unpaid responsibilities shape mobility in Nagaland. Notably, while socialising, communication, or religious activities formed the largest share at 39.5%, this figure is starkly telling when viewed against the national average of 70.2%.The PLFS warrants particular scrutiny on youth and educated unemployment. The overall unemployment rate among people aged 15 and above was 6.7%, while youth unemployment among those aged 15–29 stood at 17.5%. At face value, both were lower than in 2023–24, when the respective rates were 7.1% and 27.4%. However, educated unemployment moved in the opposite direction. Among people with secondary education and above, it rose from 13.4% in 2023–24 to 16.9% in 2025. Unemployment among diploma and certificate holders increased from 26.2% to 29.1%, while the graduate rate rose from 19.2% to 26.1%. This contrast raises serious questions about whether qualifications translate into employability and whether the economy can absorb its educated workforce. Moreover, PLFS 2025 introduced methodological changes and shifted the survey period to January–December, making direct comparisons difficult.Nagaland’s dependency ratio offers another important context. At 44 dependants for every 100 people aged 15–64, it remains below the national ratio of 46.5. Moreover, the State’s social capital anchored in extended family solidarity and community networks, may cushion the immediate effects of unemployment. Yet, informal support cannot indefinitely substitute for stable incomes and productive work.  Policymakers and all stakeholders must take note of the inevitable fracture and risks if the dependency ratio rises without a corresponding expansion in employment and economic opportunities.As this column has consistently argued, addressing this challenge requires shifting from short-term schemes to measurable employment outcomes. While these three reports offer distinct perspectives rather than a single cause, their common thread points to a looming, if disguised, crisis. Nagaland still has a window to act before support systems become overstretched. Without sustained course-correction, the reckoning will only grow more difficult and far costlier socially, politically, and economically.For any feedback, drop a line to jamir.moa@gmail.com