Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty

Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty

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RIO DE JANEIRO — Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil could prolong the career of a political giant—or usher in a new generation of a political dynasty.

Voter energy has surged ahead of the runoff, with rallies for each candidate drawing tens of thousands of people in major cities and packing plazas and university campuses nationwide

Many polls show a race within the margin of error between left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of voting on Oct. 4 and currently leads polls, though some surveys show the gap narrowing in recent days.

A Bolsonaro victory would extend his family's influence over the Brazilian right, which in previous decades was dominated by more moderate figures. A close ally of President Trump, Flávio Bolsonaro would, if elected, reinforce a broader rightward shift across much of Latin America, where conservative candidates have made gains in recent elections.

"We have a new feeling of urgency," said 40-year-old corporate event planner Camila Sixel, referring to Bolsonaro's first-place finish earlier in the month. Sixel has been campaigning for Lula in Rio de Janeiro.

"I'm really worried about the future for women, the fight against racism and social inequality, and the protection of vulnerable people," Sixel said.

Lula, 80, is running for his fourth nonconsecutive term and says this will be his last election. He has been at the center of the Brazilian left for a generation, first taking office in 2003 and falling out of favor with many voters in the 2010s when he was embroiled in a corruption scandal and jailed. His convictions were later annulled on procedural grounds.

Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro to win the presidency in 2022. The elder Bolsonaro is under house arrest while serving his sentence for plotting to overturn that election result, but his son, who is 45, has pledged to pardon him if elected.

The younger Bolsonaro's other proposals include trimming the size of the Brazilian state to boost economic growth. Those economic proposals became one of many points of contention in the election's first televised debate last Sunday night.

"Have you seen how things are going in Argentina, and are you going to keep saying that Milei is your model?" asked Lula, referring to Argentine President Javier Milei's austerity program and the country's rising poverty rate.

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, promised an aggressive crackdown on organized crime, telling voters that "I will give you back the streets so that you can walk in safety."

It's a message that's attractive to many Brazilians, who rank crime as a top election issue. "Security is awful," said Rio de Janeiro prison worker and Bolsonaro voter Marli Alves, 63. "You can be at an outdoor event and someone sweeps through and robs you of everything."

Beyond campaign rallies, the final days of Brazil's election have also seen protests outside Meta's São Paulo offices. Lula's campaign has accused Meta of unfairly restricting his content, potentially giving his rival, an advantage — a claim the company denies. Meta's Oversight board and a group of U.N. experts have also raised concerns about the handling of political content.

Meta acknowledged technical issues in handling election-related content in Brazil, but said in a statement, "We do not suppress content to harm one side, nor do we give preferential treatment to any side."

In a race this tight, small factors — from distortions on social media to voter turnout on Election Day—could make a difference.

And while polls have for months suggested a fairly even division of the country into Lula and Bolsonaro supporters, a survey released Wednesday found that 10% of voters were still open to changing their minds, leaving space for a last-minute surprise.