Bangladesh's GDP per capita surpassed India's in FY26 and is projected to remain higher for the next two fiscal years, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects India to regain the lead in FY29 and widen the gap through FY31.
In its latest World Economic Outlook database, released on Tuesday, the IMF puts Bangladesh's GDP per capita in current US dollar at $2,886 in FY26, compared with $2,750 for India—a difference of just $136.
Despite having an economy roughly eight times larger, India is projected to stay behind Bangladesh until FY28. The forecast shows India's GDP per capita rising to $3,662 in FY29, surpassing Bangladesh's $3,334.
By FY31, the gap is expected to widen to around $709, with India's figure projected to reach $4,389 and Bangladesh's $3,680.
Bangladesh had previously maintained a higher GDP per capita than India for seven consecutive years from 2018, before India overtook it in 2025.
GDP per capita is calculated by dividing a country's total economic output by its population. It is commonly used to compare average economic output per person, although it does not directly measure how income is distributed or the cost of living.
India retains a lead in purchasing power
The picture changes when differences in living costs are taken into account.
India remains ahead of Bangladesh in GDP per capita measured at purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for differences in the prices of goods and services between countries.
According to the IMF database, India's GDP per capita in PPP terms is projected at $12,998 in FY26, compared with $10,884 for Bangladesh, giving India a 19.4% advantage.
India has remained ahead on this measure every year since 1994, and the IMF expects it to retain that position through 2031, with the gap widening to around 45%.
Moreover, despite Bangladesh's projected lead in GDP per capita at current prices, India is expected to remain South Asia's fastest-growing economy over the forecast period.
Its GDP is projected to rise from $4.06 trillion in FY26 to $6.74 trillion in FY31, with annual growth forecast at 7.02% in FY27 and 6.81% in FY31.
Bangladesh, by contrast, is projected to record the region's slowest economic growth. Its annual growth rate is forecast to fall to 2.21% in FY28 before recovering to 2.97% by FY31.
The projections also place Bangladesh's ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2034 well above the IMF's current estimates. The Fund puts the country's GDP at $506.4 billion in FY26 and projects it to reach $674.4 billion by FY31.
Maldives leads in South Asia
Bangladesh also remains behind several other South Asian economies in GDP per capita.
The Maldives is projected to have the region's highest figure in FY26, at $19,507, followed by Sri Lanka at $5,062 and Bhutan at $4,933.
Pakistan's GDP per capita is estimated at $1,836, while Nepal is projected to have the region's lowest figure, at $1,540.