Antonio M. Romero
Malaga
The Partido Popular (PP) would secure victory if regional elections were held in Andalusia today, while the opposition PSOE shows no signs of halting its ongoing decline in voter support.
Meanwhile, right-wing Vox and left-wing Adelante Andalucía continue to gain ground, and the Por Andalucía coalition remains stagnant.
These findings come from the latest barometer released on Monday by the Centre for Andalusian Studies (Centra), a foundation operating under the regional government’s presidency department.
The survey represents the first official regional polling data published since the Andalusian elections in May and arrives during the run-up to the upcoming general election scheduled for 29 November.
According to the poll, the PP, led by regional president Juanma Moreno, would require backing from Vox to form a governing coalition. The survey projects that the PP would secure 41.5 per cent of the vote - virtually identical to the 41.6 per cent achieved during the 17 May regional elections. This level of public support would translate into 52 or 53 seats in the regional parliament, where the PP currently holds 53 representatives - two short of an absolute majority (55 seats) required to govern alone.
The Centra study was conducted between 11 and 25 September through 3,600 interviews across the autonomous community.
PSOE drops below 20 per cent benchmark
The PSOE remains Andalucía's second-largest political force, but the regional branch led by María Jesús Montero continues to lose ground.
The Centra barometer predicts the socialists would fall below the 20 per cent mark to 18.9 per cent of the vote, representing a 3.9-point drop from the 22.8 per cent achieved in May.
This decline would reduce PSOE representation to between 23 and 26 seats - a loss of two to five seats compared to their previous low of 28 seats recorded in the May election, which was already the party's worst historical result in the region.
In contrast, Vox solidifies its position as the third-largest political force in Andalucía, capturing 16.1 per cent of the vote (up 2.3 points). This increase would earn the party between 16 and 20 seats, up from its current parliamentary standing led by regional vice-president Manuel Gavira.
Adelante Andalucía continues upward trend
Adelante Andalucía, led by José Ignacio García, continues to expand its voter base following a strong performance in May. The Centra survey identifies Adelante as the fastest-growing party, rising 2.9 points to reach 12.5 per cent of the vote (up from 9.6 per cent in May). This could increase their parliamentary group from eight to nine or ten seats.
Por Andalucía - a left-wing coalition comprising IU, Podemos, Movimiento Sumar, Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz, Verdes Equo, Alternativa Republicana, and Alianza Verde - remains in fifth position with 6.5 per cent of the vote (a 0.2-point increase), holding four or five seats compared to their current five.
Severe disapproval for central government
The survey also measured public sentiment toward the national administration, revealing that 67.5 per cent of Andalusians rate Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's management as "bad or very bad".Additionally, national PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo emerged as the top choice for prime minister among Andalusian voters, selected by 19.8 per cent of respondents.