- A new report examined the political landscape in five key states ahead of the 2027 presidential election in Nigeria
- Defections by Governor Ahmadu Fintiri to the APC and Governor Bala Mohammed to the APM have shifted political calculations in Adamawa and Bauchi
- Kano's roughly 5.9 million registered voters and Kwara's APC dominance since 2019 make both states ones to watch closely
Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over 9 years of experience covering politics, elections, public affairs and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
Kano, Kano State - A new analysis by a Nigerian newspaper has examined the political landscape in five states, Kano, Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue and Kwara, as the race for the 2027 presidential election takes shape.
The report, published by The Nation on Sunday, October 18, 2026, assessed how party structures, defections and the influence of prominent politicians could affect voter behaviour in each state, with President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) all positioning for the contest.
Source: Twitter
Kano, Adamawa and Bauchi in focus
Kano, with about 5.9 million registered voters spread across 44 local government areas, is identified as a critical battleground. The report noted that the relationships among Tinubu, Obi and former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, whose performance under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in 2023 showed the power of local political structures, will likely shape how the state votes.
In Adamawa, Atiku won convincingly in 2023, polling 417,611 votes against Tinubu's 182,881, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission. However, his move from the Peoples Democratic Party to the ADC now tests whether he can hold his support base under a different party. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri's defection to the APC, along with thousands of his supporters, has strengthened the ruling party's position in the state. The influence of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu was also highlighted as a factor to watch.
Bauchi tells a similar story of shifting alliances. Atiku carried the state in 2023 with 426,607 votes to Tinubu's 316,694, but Governor Bala Mohammed's exit from the PDP for the Allied Peoples Movement has complicated the picture. Mohammed is expected to back Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, the APM's presidential candidate, raising questions about the fate of Atiku's former support base. The APC, meanwhile, is building its campaign around figures including former House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara and Minister of Health Professor Muhammad Ali Pate.
Mohammed also acknowledged Tinubu's intervention in the state's security challenges, saying:
"When we were almost overrun by bandits, nobody was coming to our aid. I went to him, and he responded in spite of my being in the opposition."
He added that Tinubu approved two military battalions in Alkaleri and Tafawa Balewa local government areas.
Source: Facebook
Benue and Kwara: Party organisation key
In Benue, the report identified the APC, PDP and ADC as the main parties to watch, with the extent of their mobilisation likely to determine the outcome. In Kwara, the APC has held a dominant position since the O to Ge movement of 2019, and the newspaper noted that the actions of allies of former Senate President Bukola Saraki and aggrieved APC members could affect how votes are distributed.
Legit.ng reports that the newspaper's assessments reflect the political situation as of October 18, 2026, and do not predict the eventual outcome of the election.
The projections for the 2027 presidential election in the five states are highlighted below:
- Kano - It’s Tinubu versus Obi/Kwankwaso.
- Adamawa - Atiku and Tinubu in fierce contest.
- Bauchi - Tinubu and Atiku are clear favourites.
- Benue - Tinubu's APC is well entrenched and far ahead.
- Kwara - APC to convincingly win the presidential election in the state.
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ChatGPT predicts winner of 2027 election
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that ChatGPT predicted that the APC would likely win Nigeria's 2027 presidential election, using the Four Horsemen framework.
It cited the opposition coalition but said the APC had the edge due to possible low voter turnout and the Tinubu administration's efforts to stabilise the economy.
Source: Legit.ng