Firefighters recover the body of an elderly woman from the rubble of a residential building hit by a Russian airstrike in Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Oct. 17, 2026. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
On the night of Oct. 2, Russian drones struck Kyiv's Southern Bridge once again. The city closed it and Paton Bridge, restricted traffic on Metro Bridge, and was gridlocked by multi-kilometer traffic jams by morning.
On the same day, Oleksii Honcharenko, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party, wrote that "we are losing the war" and need to "negotiate about everything under the sun."
He proposed discussing a neutral status instead of NATO membership, making concessions on the Russian language and the Moscow Patriarchate church, and taking the initiative to propose a phased lifting of sanctions on Russian energy in exchange for an end to long-range strikes.
The apparent idea was that Ukrainians, exhausted by constant terror, would take up his call and demand that the government make concessions to Moscow.
Honcharenko's statement came as a surprise even to his fellow party members. It was not the first time he had made remarks that ran counter to the opposition's line. But this time, he outdid himself, and it didn't take long for him to pay the price: expulsion from the parliamentary faction.
Moscow, however, reacted the same day.
Komsomolskaya Pravda war correspondent Alexander Kots published an analysis under the headline "The Odesa Strangler Honcharenko: 'We Are Losing the War.'"
Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov's channel, with 1.1 million subscribers, published extensive quotes about neutrality. It had to add a note that the author is listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia: in December last year, a Moscow court sentenced Honcharenko in absentia to 18 years in prison.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky called the lawmaker's remarks "abnormal messages," and Honcharenko's parliamentary faction expelled him on Oct. 5, as the ideas expressed remain deeply unpopular with opposition parties too.
Political analysts see this as the beginning of Honcharenko's own campaign under the banner of a "peace party."
There is fertile ground for such a campaign, but it is important not to mistake exhaustion for a willingness to surrender.
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According to Gallup, 66% of Ukrainians want the war to end through negotiations as soon as possible, up from 22% in 2022. The figure reflects a profound weariness with a war that has consumed lives, destroyed cities, and placed an intolerable burden on society; it does not, in itself, signify support for capitulation, abandoning Ukraine's sovereignty, or accepting Moscow's demands.
Yet this state of affairs has prompted savvy politicians, eager to capitalize on public sentiment, to exploit this exhaustion for political gain. Russia, too, is exploiting the renewed discussion of peace negotiations, but to pursue its own objectives.
What Russia made of his words interests us a lot. At Join Ukraine, we monitor around 1,000 Russian regional communities on Telegram and VKontakte, as well as 45 major nationwide Russian channels, every day.
"None of the posts about Honcharenko suggested that Russians were pleased by the prospect of negotiations."
From Oct. 2 to 6, seven pro-war and state-run channels in our sample mentioned Honcharenko 15 times.
Regional communities ignored the story, with just two mentions among 74,000 posts. The Russian provinces do not care about a Ukrainian lawmaker, but propagandists do — a lot.
Three brief conclusions can be drawn from what was said about Honcharenko in Russia.
First, Russians are becoming convinced that terrorizing cities works. Russian journalist behind the popular Telegram Channel Voenkor Kotenok juxtaposed Honcharenko's posts from 2022 with his current remarks: "This is what 'Geran' (drone) does when it brings life. The preventive measures should have started four years ago, instead of whining."
Second, there will be no concessions in return. Boris Rozhin, who has 755,000 followers, wrote: "It would be a big mistake to consider [him] a representative of 'Ukraine that wants peace.' Peace in Ukraine has nothing to do with Nazis."
None of the posts about Honcharenko suggested that Russians were pleased by the prospect of negotiations.
The third conclusion is the shortest: Russians find Honcharenko ridiculous. More than half of the reactions to these posts were laughing emojis.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is not refusing to talk to Russia. On Oct. 7, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry outlined five ceasefire formats that Kyiv is ready to discuss. The difference is that in Moscow, the phrase "we are losing" is interpreted exclusively as a sign that the terror is working.
According to estimates by the DeepState project, the Russian army captured 341 square kilometers (131,6 square miles) between July and September, less than 0.06% of Ukraine's territory.
The actual situation may differ: recent Ukrainian advances have not been marked on the map for operational security reasons. The Ukrainian army has held this front for a fifth year, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are probably the only ones who can say whether we are losing.
The Kremlin is now betting less on military victory than on political victory.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Putin expects to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027 through mass strikes using jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles.
Such a plan requires a society that decides for itself that it has lost. Russia is working toward this goal far from the front lines, carrying out dozens of acts of sabotage in European countries to reduce support for Ukraine.
Inside Ukraine itself, it is conducting large-scale information operations. One such operation unfolded alongside the Honcharenko story.
Starting in mid-September, a network of accounts called on Ukrainians to attend a "Maidan for Peace" on Oct. 3. Its demands included peace on any terms, open borders, and immediate presidential elections. Journalists at Texty found that the profile spreading the calls listed Russia as its location.
"The narrative that Ukraine is an aggressive actor that supposedly does not want reconciliation and therefore does not want the war to stop is a Russian political campaign."
Eventually, only a few dozen people showed up in the square.
Russian channels, though, told a different story. SHOT reported that "Ukrainians took to the Maidan," while WarGonzo claimed there were 4,000 participants.
Five channels in our sample garnered around 780,000 views on this story, while Gazeta.ru ironically illustrated the peace protest with a photo from a 2019 rally against concessions to Putin.
During our monitoring, we managed to even capture some humiliation from their own audience. "At least they came out, while we're like mice, afraid to stick our noses out," wrote a commenter under such a post in a Perm regional community.
The demand for immediate elections in this list is no accident. Putin has called Zelensky illegitimate since 2024.
Elections are prohibited by law under martial law. Millions of voters are abroad, and hundreds of thousands are on the front lines. No security conditions for holding elections have been established. An election campaign under these circumstances would give Russia several months during which politicians would compete to improve their own chances and tear apart any social consensus.
The debate over a war party and a peace party in Ukraine is absurd. In a country bombed day and night, there can be no war party by definition. Instead, there is a debate about how to end the war without losing the state.
“Russia, taking strikes and enduring deprivation, will achieve the complete exhaustion and destruction of Ukraine as a space fit for human life.”
The narrative that Ukraine is an aggressive actor that supposedly does not want reconciliation and therefore does not want the war to stop is a Russian political campaign.
Inside Ukraine, it is aimed at dividing society; abroad, at depriving Ukraine of support from its Western partners.
Judging by recent decisions on imports of Russian diesel and U.S. President Donald Trump's statements about strikes on energy infrastructure, this campaign has been successful internationally.
It will result in more money flowing into Russian state coffers and, consequently, greater funding for the war against Ukraine — meaning more civilians killed and tortured.
As for domestic Ukrainian discourse, despite their psychological and physical exhaustion, Ukrainians have not shown support for a campaign advocating peace on Russia's terms.
The so-called "peace" protest in central Kyiv failed: only a small group of people attended, including some known for their pro-Russian views.
Six days after Honcharenko's post, Z-war correspondent Kotenok described what Russia is offering in return: "Russia, taking strikes and enduring deprivation, will achieve the complete exhaustion and destruction of Ukraine as a space fit for human life."
The quote speaks for itself. It shows what really lies behind Russian calls for peace.
When Ukrainian politicians voice positions that echo the Kremlin's and destabilize society from within, they send Moscow a clear signal to continue terrorizing Ukraine.
Editor's note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.
