ETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY
Key Facts
- —What is happening Ethiopia’s intelligence chief told a regional peace forum in Bahir Dar on Friday, 23 October, that no handful of states can secure the Red Sea alone.
- —Why it matters Attacks on ships near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea’s southern gate, threaten the trade route between Asia and Europe, and landlocked Ethiopia depends on it.
- —The numbers The forum runs three days, 23 to 25 October, and the opening panel had five envoys plus a moderator. No money amounts, ship counts or casualty figures were given.
- —Who is who Redwan Huseen heads Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service. Getachew Reda advises the prime minister on East African affairs and singled out Eritrea, Ethiopia’s northern neighbor, for fomenting crisis.
- —What to watch Watch for any communique from the Tana Forum, which ends on Sunday, 25 October, and for a reply from Eritrea’s government to the accusations made in Bahir Dar.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Eritrean forces entering Ethiopia and taking control of territory a 4.4% chance by October 31 and 14.5% by December 31 (24 October, 10:10 a.m. ET).
- —What it means for you For US readers, Red Sea attacks can lift shipping and energy costs, and Washington has already urged restraint over the Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions.
Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar.
Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea security on Friday, 23 October 2026, as a regional diplomacy dialogue opened. Ambassador Redwan Huseen, who runs the National Intelligence and Security Service, warned of militarization and renewed attacks on shipping.
The Red Sea is the sea lane linking Asia, the Suez Canal and Europe, so trouble there can reach US prices. Ethiopia has no coastline, and Redwan said it relies entirely on the Red Sea for maritime trade.
What Happened at the Tana Forum Dialogue
The Special Envoys’ Dialogue opened in Bahir Dar on Friday, part of the 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa. The forum runs from 23 to 25 October under the theme “Pathways to Peace in Africa: Economic Sovereignty and Geopolitical Transformation”.
The dialogue’s own theme was regional security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Paul-Simon Handy, listed as regional director for East Africa and African Union representative, moderated the panel.
Fana Media Corporation and the Ethiopian News Agency, both state outlets, covered the opening on Friday. Horn Diplomat and Ethiopia’s foreign ministry blog also reported on the dialogue.
What Ethiopia’s Spy Chief Said About Red Sea Security
Redwan said militarization, rivalry among foreign powers and renewed attacks on commercial ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait strain regional trade routes. The strait is the narrow passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
He argued that Red Sea security cannot be guaranteed by a handful of coastal states acting alone. He called for collective action by regional states and reliable international partners.
Redwan also said he expects the dialogue to produce actionable recommendations. He wants them to align peace initiatives and strengthen cooperation between regional and continental frameworks.
What the Foreign Envoys Said
Guang Cong, the UN secretary-general’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, called the situation a “polycrisis”. He said wars in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia and Red Sea shipping threats are deeply linked, the Ethiopian News Agency reports.
Germany’s envoy, Heiko Nitzschke, noted a heightened sense of urgency among European and African policymakers. He cited the impact on trade routes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and urged region-led peace initiatives and economic integration.
France’s envoy, Frédéric Clavier, said stronger multilateral cooperation is needed to stabilize the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. Pekka Haavisto, the UN secretary-general’s personal envoy for Sudan, said diplomatic efforts must line up behind crises that span several states.
In Plain English
- Tana Forum: a security conference held this year in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, that gathers African and foreign diplomats.
- Bab el-Mandeb: the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a gateway for ships bound to and from the Suez Canal.
- National Intelligence and Security Service: Ethiopia’s main spy and security agency, led by Redwan Huseen.
- Horn of Africa: the region of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia on Africa’s eastern tip.
Why Ethiopia Pointed at Eritrea
Getachew Reda, adviser to the prime minister on East African affairs, used the panel to criticize Eritrea. He singled out Eritrea as one of the players showing “recalcitrant behavior” and continuing to “foment crisis”, the Ethiopian News Agency reports.
He said Ethiopia prefers dialogue and multilateral frameworks, citing the Pretoria Agreement on northern Ethiopia. He warned that domestic peace efforts face interference from regional actors and urged the world to confront outside forces fueling instability.
Eritrea’s foreign ministry had already rejected Ethiopian accusations in a statement reported by the Ethiopian news site Borkena on 22 October. It denied that Eritrean troops have crossed into Ethiopia and called generalized calls on both sides legally deficient.
That statement also rejected de-escalation appeals from the UN, the African Union, the United States and Britain. No Eritrean reply to the Bahir Dar remarks has been found.
What It Means for US Readers
The Red Sea route carries trade between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal. Attacks near Bab el-Mandeb can raise freight and energy costs for US buyers.
Washington is already involved in the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute. On Sunday, 18 October, Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged restraint over Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions, The Reporter and Capital report.
He warned that troops surging on both sides of the border could spark a wider regional war. He also defended lifting some sanctions on Eritrea as a targeted step to open diplomatic channels.
The panel list published by Fana names no US envoy, and no US statement at the dialogue was found. No new sanctions, shipping rules or aid decisions were announced in Bahir Dar.
US readers should treat the dialogue as diplomatic signaling, not as a change on the water. Shipping costs and the Eritrea dispute are the two things to track.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a real-money prediction platform, lists “Eritrea invades Ethiopia by…?” with about US$115,000 in total volume. The October 31 contract trades at 4.4% (about US$55,000 volume) and the December 31 contract at 14.5% (about US$60,000).
A Yes needs Eritrean forces to enter Ethiopia and take control of territory for 48 hours or more by the date. Prices were read at 10:10 a.m. ET on 24 October 2026, and the dialogue reports mention no such operation.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No joint statement or recommendations from the dialogue had been published in the sources read. The forum continues until 25 October, so conclusions may still come.
Redwan did not name who carried out the renewed attacks on ships. The reports give no shipping figures, vessel names or dates.
Eritrea’s government has not been found replying to Getachew’s remarks. Claims by both capitals about troops and borders cannot be checked independently from these sources.
Ethiopian state media supplied the envoys’ remarks, and they paraphrase more than they quote. This article therefore attributes each statement and adds no detail the reports do not give.
What Comes Next
Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo is due to give a keynote at the forum on Saturday, 24 October, the Club of Mozambique reports. The forum closes on Sunday, 25 October.
Watch for a Tana Forum communique and any Eritrean response to Ethiopia’s remarks. A change in shipping attacks near Bab el-Mandeb would matter more to US readers than the speeches.
Earlier coverage: Ethiopia Warns Eritrea of Severe Cost and US Ambassador Urges Ethiopia Talks. Background: Foreign Military Bases in the Horn of Africa Explained.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tana Forum?
The Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa is a gathering on African peace and security. Its 12th edition runs from 23 to 25 October 2026 in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
What did Ethiopia say about the Red Sea?
Ethiopia’s intelligence chief said Red Sea security cannot rest with a handful of states. He called for collective action by regional states and reliable international partners.
Why does a landlocked country care about the Red Sea?
Ethiopia has no coastline, and Redwan said it relies entirely on the Red Sea for maritime trade. Attacks on ships therefore threaten its trade routes.
Did the United States take part in the dialogue?
The panel list published by Fana names envoys from the UN, France, Germany and Ethiopia, but no US envoy. The sources do not say whether US officials attended other sessions.
Will this change shipping costs or fuel prices?
No decision was announced in Bahir Dar. The envoys’ warnings are signals rather than measures.
Sources: Tana Forum Secretariat, 12th Tana Forum dates, venue and theme; Fana Media Corporation, 23 October 2026; Fana Media Corporation, intelligence chief’s remarks, 23 October 2026; Ethiopian News Agency, Redwan Huseen, 23 October 2026; Ethiopian News Agency, Getachew Reda and the envoys, 23 October 2026; Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs blog, 23 October 2026; Horn Diplomat, 24 October 2026; Borkena, Eritrea’s statement, 22 October 2026; The Reporter Ethiopia, Rubio remarks, 18 October 2026; Capital Ethiopia, Rubio remarks, 18 October 2026; Club of Mozambique, President Chapo’s trip (all accessed 24 October 2026).