BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 12:35 a.m. ET · Source: TV Globo interview, reported by Estão, Terra and Poder360
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Flávio Bolsonaro told TV Globo that his brother Eduardo will not be his foreign minister if he wins.
- His father Asked about a government post for former president Jair Bolsonaro, he said it is not on the radar and that his father never asked for one.
- Why the US cares Eduardo Bolsonaro lives in the United States, where he has lobbied for sanctions on Brazil, Estão reported.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23% (17 October, 12:18 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 17 October, 12:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Who would run Brazil’s foreign ministry, and whether Jair Bolsonaro would play any formal role, is not known.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, said on Friday 16 October that his brother Eduardo will not be his foreign minister if he is elected president. He made the remark in an interview with TV Globo, Brazil’s biggest broadcaster, nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
The conservative Liberal Party (PL) candidate faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, in the vote on Sunday 25 October. Eduardo is a former federal deputy who lives in the United States, so the choice matters for Washington.
Eduardo Will Not Run the Foreign Ministry
“Não, ele não vai ser meu chanceler” (No, he will not be my foreign minister), Flávio told interviewer Renata Lo Prete, according to Estão. He called Eduardo a political persecutee who is abroad denouncing abuses in Brazil.
Eduardo lives in the United States, where he has worked to push sanctions on Brazil over the Supreme Court conviction of Jair Bolsonaro for a coup attempt, Estão reported. Terra added that Eduardo was sentenced in Brazil to prison for coercion.
No Post Promised for Jair Bolsonaro
Asked whether his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, would join a Flávio government, the candidate said it is “not on the radar” (“não está no radar”), Estão reported. He added, in translation, that his father never dealt with a post with him and never suggested he would like to work in the government.
Flávio also denied he would back changes to the law so his father could run to succeed him in 2030, according to Estão. Terra reported that he said Jair would climb the ramp of the Planalto presidential palace at the inauguration.
Why Washington Is Watching
The foreign minister leads Brazil’s diplomacy, including its relations with Washington. Eduardo’s lobbying for sanctions in the United States is why his name drew attention.
Ruling him out does not end the question of who would speak for Brazil in Washington. Our Brazil election polls tracker shows how close the race stands.
What It Means for US Readers
If you do business with Brazil, the foreign minister will shape trade talks, tariffs and sanctions policy. Flávio has now said who will not hold that job, but not who will.
If you follow US politics, the answer shows how far a possible Flávio government would distance itself from the sanctions campaign. Our Brazil election odds page tracks the betting markets daily.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (17 October, 12:18 a.m. ET), in a market that has drawn about US$185 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), also lists Brazilian runoff markets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.2% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22%
As of 17 October, 12:20 am ET (05:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known who Flávio would name as foreign minister, or whether Eduardo could hold another post. None of the reports we reviewed carried a response from Lula’s campaign.
It is also unclear whether a remark in an interview will shift undecided voters before 25 October. A campaign statement is not a commitment on appointments.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be Brazil’s foreign minister?
Flávio Bolsonaro said on 16 October that Eduardo will not be his foreign minister. He made the remark in an interview on TV Globo.
Would Jair Bolsonaro get a government post?
Flávio said a post for his father is not on the radar and that Jair never asked for one. He did not say whether his father would join the cabinet.
Where does Eduardo Bolsonaro live?
He lives in the United States, Estão reported. Terra said he was sentenced to prison in Brazil for coercion.
Who is running in Brazil’s runoff?
President Lula, of the Workers’ Party, faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party. Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this interview. The winner takes office as president.
Sources: Estão, 16 October 2026; Terra, 16 October 2026; Poder360, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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