Many countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have maintained their economic resilience despite the adverse effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict on global energy markets and trade, International Monetary Fund (IMF) official Jihad Azour has said.
The director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department made the remarks during a briefing.
Azour said economies directly affected by the military conflict were facing significant pressure, while other countries across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as most states in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, had demonstrated greater resilience.
He noted that the region’s economic outlook would depend on the pace of recovery in energy production and international trade, alongside efforts to preserve macroeconomic stability.
According to Azour, oil production has fallen sharply in almost all oil-exporting countries directly affected by the conflict. Disruptions to maritime transport and petroleum product supplies have also driven up fuel prices.
However, pre-conflict fiscal surpluses, alternative transport routes, oil production outside the Persian Gulf and the use of strategic reserves have helped limit the initial economic losses, keeping them below earlier expectations.
The IMF official warned that the capacity of these factors to cushion the economic impact was gradually diminishing. With reserves declining and opportunities to increase production remaining limited, further disruptions to energy supplies could trigger sharper price fluctuations.
Azour’s assessment highlights the importance of economic diversification, reliable transport corridors and prudent fiscal policies in helping countries across the South Caucasus and Central Asia withstand external shocks.