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The NFL is back in Europe for the fourth International Series matchup of the season. This time, the Steelers and Saints clash in France to kick off Sunday’s Week 7 slate.
The last two games in London have been nail-biters, decided by field-goal finishes, and oddsmakers project this one to be close as well, with Pittsburgh opening as 3.5-point favorites.
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers stormed back from a 13-point deficit to defeat the Bucs 26-19 in overtime last week.
New Orleans mounted a comeback win of their own in Week 6, with Tyler Shough leading an explosive 34-point surge that shocked the Giants at MetLife Stadium.
Steelers vs. Saints prediction
The Steelers carry momentum into this matchup, with consecutive wins and a ball-hawking defense tied for third league-wide with 10 takeaways.
After a rough start to the season, Rodgers has found his groove, throwing 11 touchdowns to just four picks since Week 2. While the veteran QB continues to protect the football, Mike McCarthy’s rushing attack gets a premium matchup.
Although these international games always bring a different kind of intrigue, the numbers on the Saints’ run defense point to Jaylen Warren and the Steelers as the betting side here.
Through six games, the Saints’ run defense has been near the bottom, allowing an NFL-worst opponent rushing success rate, 11 touchdowns on the ground, and 138 rushing yards per contest.
This bodes well for Warren, who already has two 100-plus rushing games and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, the third-best in the NFL. He has a strong chance to score given his steady production as a runner and an even higher upside as a receiver.
Though the Saints are 2-0 against the spread away from home this season, Shough’s best chance may be to air it out to Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele. The Steelers’ secondary has held up well against the pass, allowing just 3 passing touchdowns through Week 6, two being to Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 3.
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As great as their comeback against the Giants was, I think the Steelers’ defense, combined with a solidified ground game, dooms Kellen Moore and New Orleans in this spot.
If you want a small sprinkle, Rico Dowdle provides solid value after recently returning from injury. He hasn’t found the end zone this year, but remember Atlanta’s backfield duo of Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. lit up the Saints for five rushing scores in Week 4.
Dowdle at essentially +333 to score offers great value, especially if he gets red-zone reps.
Same-Game Parlay: (+130, BetMGM) – Jaylen Warren to score a touchdown (-145) + Steelers moneyline (-185) | Rico Dowdle to score a touchdown (+333, 30 percent, Novig)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.