Forget the NFC West, Can the Rams Even Make the Playoffs?

The Los Angeles Rams are 2-4 entering Week 7 and it can be argued that Sunday’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders is a must-win situation. A win against the Arizona Cardinals last week would have put the Rams in second place in the NFC West, right behind the San Francisco 49ers. Losing that game put them at 0-2 in the NFC West and in last place. At this point, it’s highly unlikely the Rams win the division, especially with the 49ers at 6-0. 

Entering Week 7, the Rams have a four percent chance to win the NFC West. However, the playoffs are still within reach. Cue Jim Mora’s “Playoffs?! Playoffs?! You want to talk about playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game!” rant from November of 2000.

That’s where the Rams are at right now. It seems ridiculous to talk about the playoffs because they really need to just focus on winning a game. After losing 18-16 to the Cardinals and suffering the amount of injuries they have, the Rams simply need to focus on taking things one week at a time. 

Still, that doesn’t mean that we can’t look ahead a little bit. Back in 2023, the Rams came back from a 3-6 start to make the playoffs. In 2024, they came back from a 1-4 start to make the postseason. Making the playoffs isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. The Rams just need to start stringing some wins together. 

Rams' Current Playoff Chances

As it stands, the Rams have a 39 percent chance to make the playoffs via The Athletic. ESPN’s model has them slightly lower at 33 percent. While the Rams are playing an AFC opponent on Sunday, a win is critical to their playoff chances simply because they can’t afford many more losses.

A loss to the Raiders would put the Rams at a 27 percent chance to make the playoffs. Winning on Sunday makes it a near coin-flip at 45 percent. It’s very possible that we are looking at this game as the one that saved or ruined the Rams’ season.

Rams Face an Uphill Battle in a Crowded NFC Playoff Picture

To make the postseason, the Rams may need to finish 11-6 or 10-7. That means they can afford just two or three more losses over their final 11 games. They still have to play the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks twice, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Green Bay Packers. It’s likely the Rams will lose two of those games at minimum. 

Looking at ESPN’s model, the biggest threats to the Rams’ playoff chances right now are the second- through fourth-place teams in the NFC North and the Seattle Seahawks. The good news is that the Rams will play the Packers after the bye week and then play the Seahawks twice in the final three weeks of the season. 

Unfortunately, the timing may not work in the Rams’ favor, as the Packers have bounced back from their early-season struggles. While the Seahawks are in a rut, they may snap out of it by Week 16.

The Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings, and Seahawks will all be teams that the Rams will be watching closely. There will likely only be one team to come out of the NFC South and NFC East divisions. However, the NFC North and NFC West could provide multiple playoff teams. 

As it stands, the Rams’ most likely record is between 8-9 and 10-7. Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game format in 2021, only the Seattle Seahawks in 2024 missed the playoffs at 10-7. That’s what the Rams are looking at right now with the overall strength of the NFC. An 8-9 team has never made the playoffs as a wild card, and if the Rams were to go 9-8, they would certainly need help. They may need help at 10-7.

Potential Playoff Scenarios

Realistically, the Rams are hoping they can finish ahead of the Seahawks in the NFC West and that either the Vikings collapse after starting 5-0 or the Packers lose their form again. There’s very little confidence right now that the Rams can string wins together, but the schedule has set up for it. If the Rams can win each of their next five games, that alone would increase their playoff chances to 77 percent. That would allow the Rams to lose to the Chiefs, the 49ers, and the Seahawks once and still finish 10-7. If that’s the way things play out, the Rams would have an 89 percent chance at the postseason. 

They would obviously need certain things to go their way as well. Given the Rams’ poor record in the division, they would not be able to tie with the Seahawks. They would need the Seahawks to finish worse than 10-7 or take the season series and win both games in Week 16 and 18. 

It seems likely with their schedules that the Bears and Lions finish with 11 wins. That leaves the Vikings and Packers as teams to monitor.

With the Vikings, they could lose four of their next five games. They play the Lions, Packers, and 49ers on the road and then also play the Bills. The Patriots on the road will be tough and the Panthers have looked good as well. It’s possible the Rams could use some help in later weeks. However, if the Vikings finish 10-7, the Rams would be seeded ahead of them. 

Finally, the Rams’ game against the Packers after the bye is a must-win. If the Rams lose that game, it would be very difficult to come back from that. Assuming they win that game, it's possible the Packers could finish 10-7 and behind the Rams in the standings.

That would put the Rams in the playoffs and a trip to Carolina in the Wild Card round for a second consecutive season. Given the Rams’ current situation, they would very likely need to win three road playoff games to make the Super Bowl, but if they get healthy and find their stride, they would be a rare team with a good chance of doing that. 

The Rams Have Been Here Before, but This Is Different

The Rams have come back from early-season deficits in the past. That’s certainly not the path they wanted to take this year, but it’s where they find themselves. Still, they need to show they can consistently win games. The Rams may be better than their record says they are, but they are 2-4.

In 2024, it was a win against the Raiders in Week 7 that sparked a 9-3 finish. The Rams will hope a win against the Raiders in Week 7 this year does the same. The year before, the Rams lost three straight before a win against the Seahawks sparked them to a 7-1 finish. 

However, the difference in both cases was that the Rams were getting healthy and coming off their bye week. At this point in the season, the Rams couldn’t be more hurt at key positions, and they don’t have their bye until Week 11.

Still, Sunday’s game against the Raiders is important. If the Rams are going to turn it around, it starts on Sunday. We can talk about playoff scenarios all we want, but none of it matters if the Rams can’t start winning games. The margins are already small and they get narrower with every loss. If they can get to the bye week with some momentum, the season could look very different. At 2-4, however, they can no longer afford to keep waiting for things to turn around.

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