THE Visayas grid is at risk of further red and yellow alerts if power project timelines slip, with the stakes of any delay rising as the El Niño approaches its peak, the Department of Energy (DoE) said.
In a briefing on Monday, Energy Undersecretary Mario C. Marasigan said the government is banking on supplementing capacity in the region via battery energy storage system (BESS) and diesel power barges.
The DoE expects 253 megawatts (MW) to be provided by BESS projects targeted for completion by the end of 2026 and an additional 293 MW of diesel-fired generation capacity by the first quarter of 2027.
“If we are unable to bring these additional capacities online, we will see a substantial number of red alerts, not just yellow alerts. This underscores the importance of additional capacity from power barges and battery energy storage systems,” Mr. Marasigan said.
The Visayas grid experienced red and yellow alerts this year, indicative of tight power supply conditions with available capacity struggling to meet demand.
A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement. If conditions worsen and supply is not enough to meet demand, a red alert is declared, raising the risk of rotational brownouts.
Since the start of the year, 115 yellow alerts and 44 red alerts were raised over the Visayas grid due to the shutdown of several power plants.
Mr. Marasigan said according to simulations, the Luzon grid could experience red alerts until next year, although these would not necessarily lead to manual load dropping or power interruptions.
“The incoming committed projects are expected to help reduce the occurrence of red and yellow alerts,” he said.
Meanwhile, the DoE expects a few red and yellow alerts in Mindanao in the last quarter of 2027 as El Niño could reduce output from the Agus-Pulangi hydroelectric complex.
Straddling the provinces of Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, and Bukidnon, the hydropower complex currently generates only 700 MW due to aging infrastructure.
“The impact of El Niño is that the expected precipitation or rainfall, which replenishes water in our hydroelectric storage facilities, will decrease. As a result, we expect hydropower generation to be lower than normal,” Mr. Marasigan said.
Parts of the Philippines have begun experiencing the effects of El Niño, which increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, potentially leading to droughts and dry spells. It may also lead to fewer tropical cyclones, although those that develop could be stronger.
Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said the Visayas is currently stable, with no red or yellow alerts expected in the coming weeks.
“Based on our projections, the grid is currently stable. However, if El Niño sets in and hydropower output declines by 60% and solar by 20%, our supply will decrease. We are counting on the barges and batteries to compensate for that,” she said. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera