A sharp rise in deaths across Japan has turned a shortage of crematoriums into a new social problem. Annual deaths in Tokyo have climbed more than 67% in about two decades, and by 2050 the capital is projected to be unable to meet demand even if every existing facility runs at full capacity. Tokyo and its local governments are now pushing plans to build small crematoriums across the city center.
Deaths Up 67% in Tokyo, Capacity Maxed Out by 2050
The Tokyo metropolitan government and the city's 23 special wards held a meeting on the 14th to discuss building new public crematoriums in central Tokyo, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun and Fuji TV on the 15th.
The 23 wards include major central districts such as Shinjuku, Shibuya and Minato. Of the nine crematoriums currently operating there, only two are publicly run.
The push to expand capacity stems from rapid population aging. Annual deaths in Tokyo rose 67.4% from 83,849 in 2000 to 140,329 in 2024, according to the metropolitan government's vital statistics.
Deaths among people aged 85 and over rose 26.3%, from 55,910 in 2020 to 70,588 in 2024, far outpacing the 15.8% increase in total deaths over the same period. In 2024, people aged 85 and over accounted for 50.3% of all deaths, more than half the total.
The situation is expected to worsen. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that annual deaths in Tokyo are projected to reach about 200,000 around 2065.
Even factoring in plans to expand the capacity of existing facilities, the metropolitan government estimates that cremation demand will reach 99.7% of capacity in January 2040. By January 2050, it projects demand will climb to 104.5%, exceeding the limit.
In Japan, this surge in deaths driven by aging is known as a "tashi shakai," or a society of mass death.
Cremation Alone Costs Over 700,000 Won, and Tokyo Land Is Expensive
Alongside the shortage of facilities, the cost of cremation has also become an issue. Seven of the nine crematoriums in Tokyo's 23 wards are privately operated. Tokyo Hakuzen, which runs six private crematoriums, charges adults 87,000 yen (about 740,000 won) for a standard cremation.
By contrast, a public crematorium jointly operated by five wards charges local residents 44,000 yen (about 380,000 won) — roughly half the private rate. Residents from outside the area, however, are charged 88,000 yen.
Costs incurred while waiting for cremation add to the burden. Tokyo Hakuzen charges 8,800 yen (about 75,000 won) a day to store a body, meaning longer waits mean higher costs for bereaved families.
Since April, the 23 wards have provided up to 27,000 yen (about 230,000 won) to residents who meet certain requirements to help cover private cremation fees.
Concluding that subsidies alone are not enough, the wards have turned to expanding public facilities.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the 23 wards are considering distributing small facilities with two to five cremation furnaces across multiple locations. The goal is to put them into operation within about five years, using existing cemeteries, temple grounds and public land.
Officials are also considering facilities that can be easily assembled and dismantled, in anticipation of a future decline in demand.
The obstacles are high land prices and local opposition. Tokyo and the 23 wards plan to review a rule requiring crematoriums to be located at least 250 meters from homes as a general principle, citing advances in exhaust gas treatment technology.
More Than 40% of Japan's Major Cities Face Crematorium Shortages
The shortage is not limited to Tokyo.
In a survey of 20 Japanese cities designated by government ordinance that operate public crematoriums, the Yomiuri Shimbun found that nine said cremation demand could exceed their processing capacity by around 2040.
Yokohama and Hiroshima have already seen demand surpass capacity. Shortages are expected in Saitama around 2030, Chiba around 2033 and Kawasaki around 2036.
In Chiba, some families have waited seven to 10 days for a cremation during the winter, when deaths peak.
Expanding facilities requires enormous budgets. Yokohama plans to open its fifth municipal crematorium by the end of this year, increasing its number of furnaces to 60 from 44. The city has issued municipal bonds to fund the roughly 26 billion yen project.
In a 2023 projection, Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research forecast that annual deaths would peak at about 1.65 million in 2040. But But the actual number of deaths in 2025 already exceeded the institute's projection for that year by about 70,000..
As aging strains not only health care and nursing but also funeral infrastructure, securing cremation capacity has become an urgent task for Japanese local governments.