Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Canelo Alvarez a 73% chance against Christian Mbilli, and gives America a 19% chance to win the Liga MX Clausura, as of October 16, 11:07 p.m. ET. Prices are bets, not polls.
Palmeiras seized control in Rio. José Manuel López and Marlon Freitas scored to earn a 2-1 away win over Fluminense at the Maracanã on Wednesday.
Flamengo left La Plata unscathed. The Rio giants drew 0-0 with Estudiantes on Thursday.
Both Brazilian clubs host the return legs. The return legs on 21 and 22 October will decide who reaches the final in Montevideo on 28 November.
Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flamengo 49.0% and Palmeiras 40.5% to win the Copa Libertadores (read at 11:16 pm ET on 16 October).
Today’s headlines October 17, 2026
| Event | Status | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense vs Palmeiras | Result, 14 Oct | López and Freitas score to give Palmeiras a 2-1 semi-final lead from the Maracanã. |
| Estudiantes vs Flamengo | Result, 15 Oct | Goalless in La Plata leaves Flamengo with home advantage in the return leg. |
| Flamengo vs Estudiantes | Thursday, 22 Oct, 9:30pm ARG | Flamengo welcome Estudiantes to the Maracanã after their disciplined away draw. |
01
Palmeiras take control with a 2-1 win at Fluminense
Result
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 2-1 at the Maracanã on 14 October in the first leg of the Copa Libertadores semi-finals.
José Manuel López opened the scoring just before half-time for the visitors.
Marlon Freitas doubled the lead in the 84th minute before Wesley Natã pulled one back for Fluminense in the 92nd.
The win gives Palmeiras a strong platform for the return leg in São Paulo.
Fluminense must now overturn a one-goal deficit in São Paulo to reach the final.
In short — Palmeiras won 2-1 at Fluminense with goals from López and Freitas, taking a commanding semi-final lead.
02
Flamengo survive Estudiantes pressure to earn goalless draw
Result
Flamengo held Estudiantes de La Plata to a 0-0 draw on 15 October in La Plata.
The Argentine side pushed for a winner but could not break down Flamengo’s disciplined defence.
The result leaves the tie evenly balanced ahead of the second leg in Rio de Janeiro.
Flamengo will be confident at home.
Estudiantes need a result at the Maracanã to keep their final hopes alive.
In short — Flamengo drew 0-0 away at Estudiantes and return to the Maracanã with the tie level.
03
Return leg dates set: Palmeiras and Flamengo host decisive ties
Preview
Palmeiras host Fluminense on 21 October at 9:30pm Argentina time.
Flamengo welcome Estudiantes on 22 October at the same kickoff time.
Both Brazilian clubs carry advantages into these home fixtures.
The winners advance to the final on 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.
Palmeiras go through with a draw, while Fluminense must win.
In short — The semi-final return legs are scheduled for 21 and 22 October with both Brazilian sides at home.
04
Colombian league fixtures scheduled for Saturday remain unconfirmed
Football
Colombia’s Liga BetPlay has matches listed for 17 October, including Boyacá Chicó versus Atlético Nacional.
Millonarios face Jaguares and Independiente Medellín play Once Caldas on the same day.
No results are available yet, and kick-off times should be checked with the clubs before travelling.
In short — Colombian league games are scheduled for Saturday and results are not yet available.
05
What Prediction Markets Say
Odds
Polymarket gives Flamengo 49.0%, Palmeiras 40.5% and Estudiantes 8.8% to win the Copa Libertadores (US$35,363 traded). On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, traders price Palmeiras at 49.0%, Flamengo at 44.0%, Fluminense at 17.0% and Estudiantes at 11.0% (9,918 contracts traded).
Prices are bets, not polls, and were read at 11:16 pm ET on 16 October.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Prediction Markets Say
Implied chances from traders’ prices, as of October 16, 11:07 p.m. ET.
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli
Canelo Alvarez 73% · Christian Mbilli 27%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 241,025 contracts traded
Liga MX Clausura Champion
America 19% · Leon 11% · Guadalajara 10%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 543,049 contracts traded
Brazil Série A: Winner
Flamengo 59% · Palmeiras 38% · Fluminense 0.1%
Polymarket · US$48,971 traded
Copa Libertadores: Winner
Flamengo 49% · Palmeiras 40.5% · Estudiantes LP 8.8%
Polymarket · US$35,363 traded
Colombia Primera A: Teams relegated (2026)
Jaguares 46% · Cúcuta Deportivo 4% · Independiente Medellín 3.5%
Polymarket · US$20,992 traded
Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
UTC Cajamarca 85.5% · Deportivo Moquegua 46% · FC Cajamarca 43.5%
Polymarket · US$19,810 traded
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
06
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ
Who scored for Palmeiras in their win over Fluminense?
José Manuel López scored just before half-time to give Palmeiras the lead.
Marlon Freitas made it 2-0 in the 84th minute before Fluminense’s Wesley Natã replied in stoppage time.
When is the Copa Libertadores final?
The final is scheduled for 28 November 2026 at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo, Uruguay.
The winners of the two semi-final ties will meet there.
What happened in the Estudiantes versus Flamengo first leg?
Estudiantes and Flamengo played out a goalless draw on 15 October in La Plata.
The return leg in Rio de Janeiro on 22 October will decide which team advances.
In short — Palmeiras lead 2-1, Flamengo drew 0-0, and both return legs take place next week before the Montevideo final.
Sources: Cooperativa, ESPN Deportes, El País, AS Colombia
Updated: 2026-10-16T23:12:00-03:00 by Oliver Mason, Latin America sports correspondent.
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