Previewing UVA football’s Friday night matchup versus Duke

The Virginia Cavaliers (4-3, 2-2) return home Friday night to face Manny Diaz and the Duke Blue Devils (4-2, 1-2) for the third time in two seasons. The ‘Hoos come in looking to right the ship after what was a competitive, winnable game last weekend against SMU, while Duke has cooled after two straight ACC losses spoiled a hot four-win start to its season.

Both Tony Elliott and Diaz are looking to avoid a season-stifling third conference loss before we get out of October in a game where both teams want to lean on their respective run games. The ‘Hoos will have an especially tall task at stopping the ground game, given Nate Sheppard’s talent on the other side, and the number of injuries that were already plentiful a week ago and have since grown coming out of that SMU loss.

Ethan Minter is officially out after a collision knocked him out of that SMU game, leaving the defense to replace yet another starter in the secondary. Corey Costner is as well, and Brandyn Hillman is doubtful. Hopefully there is a week when this team gets some decent injury news and regains some of its depth heading into the final stretch of the season, but this week obviously isn’t the one.

The ‘Hoos and Blue Devils are set to kick at 7 p.m. from Scott Stadium on ESPN. Here are two keys and a prediction for the game.

Two Keys

Contain Nate Sheppard

That’s probably the most obvious key to a game you’ll see here all season.

Not only will Sheppard be the best running back the Cavalier defense has faced to date, but he’s also continued to prove he’s one of the very best backs in the country. After a highly productive freshman season a year ago, Sheppard’s spearheaded the Blue Devil offense in multiple facets. His 820 yards on the ground and eight touchdowns are both top-12 marks in the country.

He’s registered 99 or more yards in five of six games, and found the end zone in all but one game, which was last week’s loss to North Carolina. And as a pass-catcher? No big deal, he just leads the team in catches (28), yards (259), and touchdowns (4). He’s as dynamic as anyone in the ACC right now and will be a measuring stick for where this UVA defense is ahead of another game with so many injuries.

The ‘Hoos have allowed at least one hundred-yard rusher in four of the last five games, If there were ever a game where this team needs Kam Robinson, who Tony Elliott said he challenged to play big ahead of this week, and Maddox Marcellus to both play like superstars, this is the one.

Matthew Fobbs-Whiteneeds to live in the backfield all game long

It’ll be critical for Fobbs-White to get after Walker Eget in the backfield. The Blue Devils are second-best in FBS at keeping their QB upright, having allowed just two sacks all year.

Fobbs-White picked up his team-best fourth sack against Kevin Jennings a week ago, and has had a very good three-game stretch, flushing QB’s out of the pocket and disrupting timing. He doesn’t have the gaudy multi-sack games to show for it, but he’s continued to be a guy this defense can lean on to blow plays up. In the last three games, Fobbs-White has an average pass-rush grade of 78, per PFF. His all-encompassing season grade of 85 is far and away the best out of all starters for the ‘Hoos.

Duke’s offense will likely be able to move the ball on the ground consistently, which means when given the chance, the ‘Hoos have to heat Eget up on longer passing downs. UVA was great on third down against SMU, allowing just four conversions on 13 tries, but did allow four fourth down conversions for what it’s worth. The pass rush will be much needed, and defensive coordinator John Rudzinski needs his top guy in Fobbs-White to be impactful with a sack or three.

Prediction

It’s been tough to get a feel for any of these games since the FSU loss. The injuries certainly don’t make things any easier. The ‘Hoos, as of Thursday night, sit as a 2.5-point home favorite. From what I saw, that line was mostly at 1.5 in the early days leading up. UVA is a perfect 4-0 at home and has been great inside Scott Stadium dating back to last year.

Where the offense comes from is my main concern coming in. We know Duke will do all it can to force-feed Sheppard in every way possible, and that’s worked up to this point. UVA leaned on Jekail Middlebrook early and often a week ago, only to go away from him in the second half; some of that was game situation and field position, but also by choice.

The receiving corps has to step up at some point. This Duke defense is allowing just over 90 yards per game on the ground; that’s 18th-best in the country. I’m going to go out on a limb and say we finally see some consistent pass-game creativity out of Des Kitchings on Friday night, in large part because of Duke’s ability to shut down the run. I’m fully aware of how poorly that sentence could age at the end of this game, but I’m gonna ride with it. This offense can’t possibly look as anemic as it did in the second half of last week…right? I think we see increased production out of guys like Jacquon Gibson and Ty’Lyric Coleman; add in Isaiah Robinson to that bunch as well as another option off the bench. I’ll take the ‘Hoos to win an ugly one and avoid a third ACC loss for now.

Prediction: UVA 23, Duke 21