Three Reasons Why Packers Will Outscore Cowboys for Primetime Win

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Can you imagine Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love throwing a touchdown pass and yelling toward the suite Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is watching the game from and yelling, “I own you.”

No, of course you can’t. But the Packers have owned the Cowboys. Including Love’s lights-out performance at Dallas in the 2023 playoffs, Green Bay is 10-1-1 in the last dozen meetings headed into Sunday night’s game at Lambeau Field.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will continue their dominance.

Jordan Love (With Time)

Jordan Love is the GOAT of Sunday Night Football. He’s 4-0-1 as a starter and has been a dominant player in all five games.

Love has started twice against Dallas – the aforementioned playoff game and last year’s 40-40 tie. In those games, he completed 73.4 percent of his passes for 609 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 134.2 passer rating is the highest for any quarterback that has thrown at least 50 passes against Dallas.

There is no reason to believe Love won’t destroy Dallas again.

The Cowboys have given up a league-worst 120.5 passer rating. On the road, that swells 132.4. The Cowboys are allowing 8.11 yards per passing attempt (30th), have only five sacks (30th) and have not intercepted a pass.

The lack of pass rush for the Cowboys could be a big deal, because Love is a cold-blooded killer when he has time. His clean-pocket passer rating this season is 112.8 with nine touchdowns and one interception, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s completed 69.6 percent of his passes from a clean pocket compared to 41.7 percent when pressured.

“We’ve been a lot more firm in pass pro, cleaning up some of that stuff, cleaning up who we’re going to on some of the blitzes, things like that,” Love said on Wednesday of the last two games, when Laken Tomlinson and Travis Glover were the starting guards.

“I think guys have been a lot more focused in their technique and things like that, and it’s definitely made a difference. I felt very clean in the pocket, had time to throw, get through my reads. It’s one of those things where you look at it week to week and see what we can do better and what we can clean up. But I think definitely the last two games have been some pretty good pockets.”

From Dallas’ perspective, the trade for cornerback Joey Porter Jr. should help – he was inactive for last week’s upset loss to Tampa Bay due to illness – but will be in the starting lineup. A fired-up Rashan Gary could be a bigger factor than he has been for the Cowboys.

Still, the numbers suggest that Love should be able to build on his beatdown of the Bears last week, when he had as many completions of 20-plus yards (six) as he had incompletions.

Worst vs. Worst

Last week, we chose the Packers’ worst-in-the-league running game as a reason why they would beat the Bears. And, sure enough, the Packers’ first-half running game was good enough to fuel all the bombs that Jordan Love dropped on the Bears.

On Sunday night, this will be the all-time case of the stoppable force against the movable object. The Packers still have the worst rushing attack in the league. Their 60.4 rushing yards per game is 18.6 yards worse than any other team. Their 3.05-yard average is 0.06 yards better than only the Raiders.

But Dallas’ run defense is just as bad. The Cowboys rank 32nd with 168.4 rushing yards allowed per game – about 12 yards worse than any other team – and 29th with 5.10 yards allowed per carry. They’ve allowed 165 rushing yards in four of five games, including 241 yards last week against Tampa Bay.

The Cowboys traded for defensive tackles Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams, but they haven’t exactly been forces against the run. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown will be out of the lineup again.

“Sometimes what happens is you get into a season and you’re so worried about the opponent,” embattled Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker said this week. “You got to worry about yourself and what you’re doing entirely. There have been a lot of self-inflicted wounds these first five games by us, things that are fully under our control.”

You don’t need to run the football to have success in the play-action game. But it doesn’t hurt. If the Packers can get the running game going to at least a functional level, Jordan Love will have chances to strike down the field again.

As for the Packers’ lead running back, MarShawn Lloyd, he joked that he’s seen the highlight of him running over Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson for a touchdown a “million times.” It was a great play that was good for his confidence and perhaps a sign that Green Bay’s horrendous running game can at least be mediocre.

“Each week I feel like there’s something I’ve worked on that I’m getting better at,” said Lloyd, who is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry. “Now it’s just learning the game more, being around it, being out there more. The more opportunities I get, the more opportunities I’m able to get better and learn from my mistakes. Now I just need to keep growing.”

Give and Take

The Cowboys have a league-worst two takeaways and are the only team in the NFL without an interception.

The Packers won the turnover battle last week against Chicago 5-0. Under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 45-6 in games without a giveaway. They are 16-1 in their last 17 zero-giveaway games; the exception was last year’s clear-the-benches lost at Minnesota.

It was the perfect way for the Packers to extend their winning streak to nine consecutive games in the month of October. During that span, they are fourth in points scored (27.7 per game) and fourth in points against (10.5).

Under LaFleur, they are 21-8 in October.

“Just taking it one day at a time, one game at a time. That’s the mindset,” he said. “Just putting in the work, trying to get a little bit better each and every practice. I really like what we’ve been doing from a practice standpoint, a little more one-on-one, ones versus ones and obviously you’ve still got to supplement that with some of the carded periods to make sure you’re getting the right looks. But that has been a big emphasis for us.”

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