Brown, Acton both up 6 points in Ohio races: poll

A new poll of the Ohio Senate and gubernatorial races shows Democrats ahead in both contests.

In the Senate race, a Bowling Green State University (BGSU) poll found former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) ahead of Sen. Jon Husted (R) by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters. When BGSU surveyed the race in September, Brown had just a three-point lead.

Ohio voters are evenly split 48 to 48 on who they think will win, regardless of who they support. That is narrower from September, when more thought Husted would win.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy also by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent. In BGSU’s September poll, Acton had a three-point lead. Most still think Ramaswamy is likely to win in the end, 55 to 43, though that is a closer margin than in BGSU’s September poll.

Ohio was long a battleground state but has moved towards Republicans in the last decade, starting with President Trump’s win in 2016. Former Vice President Harris lost Ohio by 11 points in 2024, and Brown lost his Senate seat that year by 3.5 points.

BGSU notes in its survey that Democrats in Ohio are more motivated to vote than Republicans, 59 percent to 41 percent, a narrower edge than in BGSU’s September poll.

BGSU Political Science Professor Robert Alexander said while Democrats may be ahead now, they should not celebrate just yet.

“While this will be welcome news to Democrats, a blue wave in Ohio is far from a sure thing,” Alexander said. “Republicans have closed well in recent statewide elections, and I would be surprised if these races did not end up within the margin of error in either direction.”

Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, agrees that the Ohio race is close, giving Brown just a 53 percent shot at flipping the seat.

The battleground Senate races have been inundated with political ads throughout the cycle, and Ohio voters expressed fatigue in the BGSU poll.

Just 6 percent of likely Ohio voters want to see more political ads before Election Day, while 60 percent say the ads are largely negative, which has caused them to tune out campaign ads altogether.

“Ohio voters remain deeply engaged in this election, but they are also telling us that the nonstop barrage of political advertising has become overwhelming,” Alexander said. 

The BGSU poll, conducted in partnership with YouGov, was a web-based survey of 1,000 likely Ohio voters fielded from Sept. 29-Oct. 9. The margin of error is +/- 3.95 points.