All the way back on Aug. 31 — a lifetime ago, after seven straight weeks of games — we logged our game-by-game predictions for Missouri football in 2026.
As the Tigers hit their idle week, we’re actually on course to be correct. We had Mizzou at 5-2 overall and 2-2 in SEC play at this point in the season, and that’s exactly where the Tigers sit.
Now, we reached the right answer through faulty means by predicting a win over Mississippi State and a loss to Texas A&M — whoops — but we’ll take the wins where we can get them. The Tigers are about where we expected them to be at the break in their year.
But what about now?
Mizzou has five games remaining in the regular season. In our preseason projections, we had the Tigers finishing the season 7-5. With how Mizzou and its future opponents have played, would we change that?
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Here’s our updated game-by-game analysis and prediction for the Tigers final five games:
Arkansas (Oct. 31, Fayetteville, Ark.)
Preseason prediction: Missouri 31, Arkansas 14
Updated prediction: Missouri 34, Arkansas 10
With two weeks of rest and recovery, Missouri should be able to come out and take care of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks just got their first win in SEC play since 2024 by beating Vanderbilt on Oct. 17 in Nashville, but Ryan Silverfield’s first season still looks very much like a full rebuilding year. Arkansas (3-4, 1-3) ranks among the bottom four in the SEC for both total offense and defense, and MU should have some frustrations to air out.
Texas (Nov. 7, Columbia)
Preseason prediction: Texas 28, Missouri 20
Updated prediction: Missouri 17, Texas 15
A win here seems much more possible than it did in August. The Longhorns have looked vulnerable, especially on offense.
Texas’ national title bid has gone off the rails after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida. Head coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning both have job security questions after a 1-2 start to SEC play.
The Longhorns (4-2, 1-2) have to face both Mississippi schools before facing Mizzou, and we wonder if the same things that afflicted Missouri in Oxford — a long run of getting physically beat up in SEC play — will affect Texas in Columbia.
So, we’re flipping our prediction here. This is a gettable game for the Tigers in Columbia.
Georgia (Nov. 14, Athens, Ga.)
Preseason prediction: Georgia 24, Missouri 13
Updated prediction: Georgia 24, Missouri 13
The Bulldogs coughed one up against Auburn this past Saturday and lost their No. 1 national ranking.
Can the Tigers go to Athens and give Kirby Smart another headache? Sure. Mizzou has played UGA about as close as any SEC team in the past handful of years.
Will they? The loss to Auburn seems more like a blip than a bad omen for the Bulldogs. We’re sticking with our preseason projection, as Georgia still looks like the most likely team to win the SEC.
Kentucky (Nov. 21, Columbia)
Preseason prediction: Missouri 28, Kentucky 17
Updated prediction: Missouri 35, Kentucky 30
We wrote this in our preseason projection:
“There’s a world that we reach the penultimate week of the regular season and new UK coach Will Stein has turned Kentucky into a seriously competitive outfit in his first year on the job.”
That world is this world. Kentucky’s real.
We wonder how sustainable it is. Back-to-back 2-point conversion wins in overtime and a +1.8 turnover margin, which ranks No. 3 in the nation, aren’t necessarily things you can count on week to week.
But … hard-nosed, aggressive football and dominant trench play is sustainable, and that’s what UK has done so far under Stein.
We’re sticking with Mizzou to win at home. But not as comfortably as we once thought.
Oklahoma (Nov. 28, Columbia)
Preseason prediction: Oklahoma 18, Missouri 15
Updated prediction: Oklahoma 14, Missouri 10
Oklahoma’s offense is bad. The defense is elite. The Sooners have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the SEC and have been a top-half unit against the run.
We worry about the Missouri offense being made one-dimensional, which is what Ole Miss did to effectively shut the Tigers out this past Saturday. OU is certainly capable of that.
This is a winnable game. Oklahoma has serious flaws on offense — arguably one of the worst teams on that side of the ball in the conference. But the tape is out on how to stop the Tigers courtesy of Mississippi, and it’s going to be on Missouri to figure out those issues by the time this game rolls around.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Have we changed our record prediction for Mizzou football? Updated game-by-game look