The Trump administration's decision to allow Russian diesel exports is a conciliatory move aimed at drawing Moscow back to the negotiating table despite the criticism it has drawn, analysts said. Ukraine has objected that the step hands Russia one-sided economic benefits, but Washington appears to believe it can prompt a shift in Moscow's position. Russia, however, shows no sign of entering talks until it secures control of the Donbas region, leaving discussions on ending the war headed for deadlock.
Reuters, citing multiple sources, reported on the 12th that U.S. officials at a meeting with Ukrainian counterparts in Miami on the 9th described the Russian diesel arrangement as a strategy for reviving talks to end the war. Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, assessed at the time that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not ready to negotiate an end to the four-and-a-half-year war. They presented the idea that the diesel deal could soften Russia's stance and allow three-way talks among the United States, Russia and Ukraine to resume. One source said the thinking was that the agreement could help moderate Moscow's position by signaling that Trump is willing to do business with Russia.
Trump earlier announced that Russia had agreed to supply more than 2.25 million barrels of diesel to the United States and global markets. The administration followed with temporary sanctions relief allowing U.S. imports of Russian diesel, among other transactions. Trump has argued the deal will help lower energy prices in the United States. Critics in Ukraine and in U.S. political circles counter that permitting Russian diesel exports could end up providing the Putin government with additional funding for the war.
Accounts have also emerged of sharp friction between the U.S. and Ukrainian sides at the meeting. According to The New York Times, Witkoff and Kushner notified Ukraine of the planned sanctions relief on Russian diesel while demanding that Kyiv halt attacks on Russian refineries. When the Ukrainian side asked what it would receive in return, the U.S. officials said they were already doing a great deal for Ukraine and saw no need to offer anything further. When the U.S. side raised intelligence support that is essential to Ukraine's war effort, some participants took it as pressure hinting at a possible cutoff, the Times reported. A U.S. government official denied that any threat to suspend support had been made.
Many observers also doubt that Russia will actually return to negotiations as Washington hopes. The Trump administration previously sought to draw Putin into talks by offering sanctions relief and mineral deals, but failed to produce any change in Russia's position. A person close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin would come back to the table only after securing the remaining 11% of the Donbas region that he has yet to bring under control.
Some assess that the talks themselves have effectively stalled as tensions between Washington and Kyiv escalate. According to the Times, Witkoff and Kushner had initially planned to travel to Russia for follow-up negotiations. But President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reported to have signaled that the visit would be deferred until he repairs his relationship with Trump. Trump has been raising the pressure, saying Ukraine "needs a new president" after Zelenskyy criticized the Russian diesel deal.