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Just about everybody expected James Madison to take a step back in 2026. Not only did the Dukes lose 23 of the 27 players who played at least 200 snaps in 2025, but head coach Bob Chesney departed the program to take over at UCLA.
Logic dictated that James Madison would deploy a similar tactic to replace Chesney as it did when he was chosen as Curt Cignetti’s successor. The Dukes clearly had a knack for picking out an up-and-comer from the FCS level, and it was expected they would do it again for 2026.
Not so fast.
Rather than go after an unknown quantity, James Madison went in the opposite direction and tapped Billy Napier, who was just fired by Florida after going 22-23 in a four-year stint.
The early returns have been quite promising. James Madison is 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Sun Belt, and they’ve gone 6-1 against the spread (ATS).
Napier’s Dukes will look to keep the good times rolling against Appalachian State on Thursday night. James Madison is a 10.5-point favorite at Kidd Brewer Stadium.
There isn’t too much guesswork when it comes to trying to figure out what James Madison wants to do with the ball. The Dukes have one of the nation’s most effective rushing attacks, averaging 5.3 yards per rush (13th overall) and 212.5 yards per game (12th), and they’re not afraid to use it. JMU runs the ball on nearly 57 percent of its snaps, which takes some pressure off quarterback Camden Coleman’s shoulders.
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This approach should work against Appalachian State, which boasts middling defensive numbers across the board despite playing the third-easiest schedule in FBS, per SP+.
App State’s three wins against FBS opponents were all by one score, and they came against three teams ranked 94th or worse in SP+ (East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, and Charlotte). Nothing suggests the Mountaineers will keep this one close.
The Play: James Madison -10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.