Another week, another reason to panic about the card market. This week, in particular, we’re all freaking out about the Shohei Ohtani trading card market.
It’s pretty brutal, if you track it back to the summer peak when his cards were 3x-ing from previous highs.
Of course a correction of sorts was in order, but after his poor showing in the MLB Playoffs coupled with the potential of a lockout this winter we’re seeing collectors bail on Ohtani at levels we haven’t seen since… two weeks ago when everyone bailed on Aaron Judge.
This, of course, is where I tell you there’s a massive “buying opportunity ahead” but my biggest question remains not “if” to buy the dip but “when”? I think if we time this right we might be able to get in on a few classic big boy Ohtani’s.
The higher-end opportunities that I have my eyes on are the 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie (PSA 10) and the 2018 Topps Chrome rookie refractor (PSA 10).
The Bowman Chrome rookie, which is his most sought after base rookie card, was topping out at around $8,000 just two months ago and now sits at closer to $4,000 and continues to drop. I’m not sure where that card settles, but if you’re looking to hold long then we know what that card can do (aka $8k) when he’s cooking – and, yes, he’ll cook again – this is a good place to look.
The better “deal,” in my opinion, though, is the 2018 Topps Chrome “Pitching” Refractor. Obviously, Topps Chrome carries more weight with collectors than Bowman Chrome does, historically, and the two things that are most interesting to me is:
The Topps Chrome Refractor has 2,000 PSA 10 copies while the Bowman Chrome has almost 5.5k PSA 10 copies
Also, both cards are sitting around the $4,200 mark – plus, the Refractor also hit an $8k top back in August as well and is short-printed compared to the Bowman
The Topps Chrome card also showcases Ohtani as a pitcher which a lot of collectors prefer. Plus, I imagine down the line, if he never pitches again, there might be a bigger nostalgia factor for his pitching cards.
I know the Ohtani market is down (bad) but if you’re looking to get in, this might be the last time you’ll be able to get either for $4k or under.
And this goes for any and all Ohtani cards, including my favorite card of all time: the Ohtani and Decoy Topps Now card. It’s crazy to think you can get a raw copy of this card for $49. This should be worth a million dollars.
The first PSA 10 of Fernando Mendoza’s base (paper) rookie card just sold for $599. Let’s all set a reminder to check back in a year from now when that card is $40 – see you then? Seriously, don’t do this. There will be 20,000 copies of that card on the market in 6 months time. If you PC him then wait for the market to settle below $50.
Leaf just announced a brand new product called “Leaf American Tapestry” where you can pull a dual auto of President Abraham Lincoln and… Samuel L. Jackson. Huh? I mean, sure, but also… huh?
Here’s my definitive list of dual autos I hope are in this new product:
Shaquille O’Neal and Danny DeVito – they are a combined 11-feet, 11-inches’ tall
Kanye West and Napoleon Bonaparte – only available in the “God pack”
LeBron James and Marco Polo – neither of these dudes could stay in one place for long
Amelia Earhart and Waldo – where are they?!
Amelia Earhart and Sully Sullenberger – two legends of the sky
Amelia Earhart and Nathan Fielder – basically Amelia Earhart and anyone who can fly a plane
Anyway, stay weird, Leaf.
The Pokemon Center had a rough Thursday this past week. While everyone was waiting hours in a queue expecting to be able to buy boxes of the 30th Anniversary Ultra Premium Collection, the TPC actually ended up dropping low-end, $10 mini tins instead.
One friend who was waiting in the queue told me that his “estimated wait time” was 62 hours. You know what I could have done in 62 hours? Listed tens of thousands of more Amelia Earhart dual autos I’d like to see.
Friend of the newsletter Kimi Antonelli just had a record-breaking sale this last week when his Topps Chrome Superfractor 1/1 rookie auto card sold for $878,400 on Goldin. It feels like a matter of time before one of his cards sells for $1 million, especially considering how quickly 2026 Topps Chrome F1 sold out last week on Topps.com.
Finally, don’t look now but the Angel Reese market is heating up. It’s up over 12.3% over the last 30 days as the Dream are in a battle to win the WNBA Finals. I know it’s always spicy to write about Reese but it’s worth noting that at 24 years old she might be the best-ish young talent in the WNBA. Consider the accolades! And if the Dream don’t win then maybe it’s time we put respect on Gabby Williams and her card market. Her cards are insanely affordable right now.