For an industry still recovering from one of its toughest periods in decades, there are signs that the market is beginning to stabilise. And India is a bright spot amidst the gloom.
Indian consumers are beginning to look beyond traditional wedding purchases when buying diamond jewellery, with demand shifting towards larger stones, younger buyers entering the category and more women purchasing diamonds for everyday wear. For De Beers, these changing preferences will help sustain India's growth momentum, even as lab-grown diamonds put pressure on prices and challenge the traditional diamond business.
The recovery, however, remains fragile. India's cut and polished diamond exports fell to around $12.16 billion in FY26, their lowest level in more than two decades, from a peak of approximately $24 billion in FY22. Credit rating agency ICRA expects exports to grow 6-8% in FY27, but continues to maintain a negative outlook on the sector, citing pricing pressures, competition from lab-grown diamonds and uncertainty in key export markets.
However, De Beers is counting on India's growing appetite for natural diamonds to help sustain demand through the festive and wedding seasons. India is the world's second-largest diamond jewellery market after the US and has grown 12% over the past couple of years, according to Shweta Harit, global senior vice president, De Beers and Forevermark. By 2024 estimates, the Natural Diamond Jewellery (NDJ) market in India is officially estimated at ₹78,500 crore.
The average diamond size purchased in the country has also increased from around 0.6 carats to 0.8 carats, while demand for stones weighing more than two carats is beginning to grow.
“We're seeing prices of larger diamonds, above two carats, beginning to grow. So, we're just hoping that the festive season goes well,” Harit said.
India is the market to watch, she added.
The optimism comes as the industry looks for signs that the prolonged correction in natural diamond prices is easing. ICRA estimates that average realisation for Indian natural diamonds fell to around $725 per carat in the first nine months of FY26, declining at a compound annual growth rate of 7% over three years. The agency expects a gradual recovery as prices stabilise and retailers resume restocking, although exports will remain well below their FY22 peak.
For the industry, the festive season will be an important test of whether improving consumer interest translates into sustained demand.
Everyday diamonds, younger buyers
A key change is the growing willingness of consumers to buy diamond jewellery for themselves and wear it more frequently. According to De Beers' Diamond Acquisition Study, overall ownership of natural diamond jewellery among women in India rose to 15% (up from 11% in 2022), while the annual acquisition rate remained steady at 3%. Meanwhile, 52% of women who purchased diamonds bought them for everyday wear, a significant departure from a decade ago, when purchases were primarily driven by special occasions.
Younger consumers are also contributing to demand. Harit says 51% of diamond purchases come from Gen Z, although the company does not have specific data establishing whether these buyers are opting for larger stones.
There is considerable headroom for the category. “Keep in mind that, compared with the US, diamond jewellery acquisition in India is still at around 15%, whereas in the US it's in the 70%. So, there's a lot more acquisition to come,” Harit said.
Rising incomes, self-purchases and more frequent use could expand the customer base further.
De Beers expects the Indian diamond market to reach around $20 billion by 2030, with Toranj Mehta, country head – Category Marketing, De Beers India, citing a strong compound annual growth rate of 12%. “Given the pace at which we're growing, the forecast for diamond jewellery looks extremely positive,” she said.
Forevermark eyes expansion
For De Beers, the opportunity also extends to its own retail business. Forevermark, which has been in India for a year, currently operates 10 stores, comprising six company-owned outlets and four franchise stores. It hopes to open at least three more by the end of the year, with the team aiming to open one before Diwali. Next year, the brand is looking to double both its store count and sales.
The expansion will initially focus on the top 20 cities, spanning metropolitan and tier-one markets, even as tier-two markets gain share in the broader diamond industry. Online discovery and assisted selling will remain important, although online transactions currently account for around 10% of Forevermark's business.
For De Beers, the immediate task is to turn festive-season optimism into purchases while building a market in which diamonds are bought not just for life's big milestones, but for everyday moments too.
NDJ demand is forecast to grow at a strong 12% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, reaching an estimated ₹1.52 lakh crore. But the broader industry will need a sustained recovery in demand and prices before it can put the prolonged downturn behind it.