A tropical depression developing over the south-western Arabian Sea is expected to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Horn of Africa and the island of Socotra, according to the latest weather updates and numerical forecast models.
20 October, 2026
Forecasters say the system could produce thunderstorms of varying intensity, accompanied by strong downdrafts and periods of heavy rainfall.
Socotra faces risk of severe thunderstorms
Socotra is among the areas expected to be most affected by the weather system.
Forecasts indicate the possibility of heavy thunderstorms, strong downdrafts and a significant reduction in visibility caused by intense rainfall.
The effects could later extend to parts of the Gulf of Aden, as well as eastern and southern coastal areas and nearby inland regions.
Weather experts are urging continued monitoring of the system, particularly because active cumulonimbus clouds could develop and produce large amounts of rain over short periods.
Such rainfall could result in the rapid flow of water through valleys and streams, increasing the risk of flooding in affected areas.
Somalia could see impact from tropical system
Somalia is also within the projected area of influence of the tropical depression.
According to the latest forecasts, the low-pressure system is moving westwards and north-westwards, with the possibility of approaching the Somali coast on 22 October.
The system could bring increased rainfall and thunderstorm activity over the south-western Arabian Sea as it moves towards the Somali coast.
Authorities and communities in coastal areas are being urged to monitor official weather updates, particularly warnings relating to possible flooding, rough seas and strong winds.
Forecast models can change as the system develops, meaning the location and intensity of the weather impacts may be revised in subsequent updates.
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