The Wisconsin Badgers and the No. 12 UCLA Bruins face off on Saturday at the Rose Bowl, with kickoff set for 4:30 p.m. local time on NBC.
The state of Wisconsin is coming off an all-time high this week, as the Milwaukee Brewers swept the Los Angeles Dodgers to reach the World Series. Now, the Badgers will hope to cap the weekend off with an upset on Saturday over the ranked Bruins.
Wisconsin comes into the game off their bye week and nearly at full strength, while UCLA will be without quarterback Nico Iamaleava and defensive back Tao Johnson, and left tackle Jordan Davis and cornerback Rodrick Pleasant are doubtful.
The Bruins opened as 3-point favorites, and for much of the week, the line has sat at 2.5. But on Saturday, the line has come down to 1.5, with the Badgers slightly favored to cover that at -115.
So, with a big opportunity for the Badgers, here are three predictions for Saturday’s game.
The run game will be the difference
Whether the Badgers win this game or not feels like it’ll boil down to their efforts in the run game on both sides of the ball.
Wisconsin hasn’t consistently been able to run the ball this season, though it found some consistency in Week 5 when using the quarterback run more often, as Colton Joseph went off for 141 rushing yards and a touchdown.
They now face a UCLA defense that ranks sixth in college football in EPA allowed per rush. The Bruins allow opponents to run for just 3.4 yards per carry on average. And it’s not like things get easier in the air, as the Bruins are the second-best defense in the country in EPA allowed per play.
Even with several defensive backs for the Bruins, the way Wisconsin has to win is by finding some consistency in the run game, even if the averages don’t end up being very high.
On the flip side, they absolutely, and this is a must, have to find a way to at least control the UCLA run game to some degree. Running back Wayne Knight and the Bruins offense will get theirs on the ground. They’re one of the most elite rushing attacks in the country, and they make it an emphasis to keep things churning on the ground.
But behind spectacular linebacker play, the Badgers have really improved as a run defense over their last three games, and they will be a challenge for UCLA, especially with a backup quarterback.
This game could be ugly if the Bruins get to 200+ rushing yards and 40+ carries, as they’ve done several times. Knight is a great back and has been an explosive generator so far, which is what Wisconsin has done really well to limit as a defense.
Overall, it feels like Saturday comes down to who can execute in the run game better.
The under comes through
It’s a slugfest type of game between two elite defenses and offenses facing a few question marks. Wisconsin hasn’t been very consistent offensively, although they’ve found different ways to win. UCLA has been dominant on the ground, but now faces a quarterback change.
The Badgers have had a full extra week to prepare. Both passing defenses have been great, which will make it hard for either team to get explosives in the air. Additionally, both teams are going to look to be consistent on the ground, which will slow things down. That’s why it makes sense that the under hits on a total of 44.5 points.
Now, unpredictable factors can come in. A turnover could certainly skew things in one direction, and both of these defenses have been very opportunistic at generating them.
But I’m leaning the under to hit on Saturday.
Badgers pull off the upset
This might be a surprise, but I’ve been leaning towards Wisconsin pulling off the upset all week, and that thought was only further emphasized with UCLA’s injury situation. I don’t know if either team eclipses 20 points, and I do have concerns about Wisconsin’s rushing offense.
But they’ll be the healthier and fresher team coming off a bye, while UCLA is coming off a very physical slugfest against Oregon and has a new quarterback in the fold. Wisconsin’s defense is just clicking on all cylinders, though their pass defense has been more consistent than their run defense.
Now, this will be the toughest run game that the Badgers face, and I do think UCLA will give them struggles at times. To pull off the upset, Wisconsin is going to have to hit on a few plays in the pass game. And I do think they’ll find a way to do that.
I’m not very confident in this pick. But give me the Badgers 20-17 over the Bruins.