AGRICULTURE areas in the Davao Region and Soccsksargen could experience up to 31 dry days per month through early 2027 as a potentially very strong El Niño threatens to intensify water shortages, agricultural losses and electricity demand across Mindanao, according to state weather forecasters.
In its regional climate assessment released during the first week of October, the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-Pagasa) Mindanao Regional Services Division warned that El Niño could persist through the first half of 2027, with its peak expected toward the end of 2026.
“Moderate to strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific. Forecasts indicate that El Niño will continue through the first half of 2027 and may intensify to a very strong state in the coming months, with its peak expected toward the end of 2026,” Pagasa said.
The weather bureau's September 2026 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) probabilistic forecast placed the likelihood of El Niño continuing above 90 percent from August to October 2026 through February to April 2027.
The prolonged climate phenomenon is expected to bring below-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures to several parts of Mindanao, raising concerns over water availability, crop production, and electricity consumption.
Dry days to increase
Pagasa projections covering October 2026 to March 2027 indicate that dry conditions will expand across Mindanao toward the end of the year.
By December, much of the island could experience 21 to 25 dry days in a month. Parts of the Davao Region, Soccsksargen and other areas in southern Mindanao, however, could experience 26 to 31 dry days.
A dry day is defined in the assessment as a day receiving less than one millimeter of rainfall.
The outlook indicates these conditions could persist into February and March 2027, when the Davao Region and Soccsksargen are projected to continue experiencing 26 to 31 dry days monthly.
Below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall is also expected to affect other parts of Mindanao during the same period, although the severity and timing of the deficits will vary by location.
The projections raise concerns for agricultural communities that depend on regular rainfall for crop production, particularly if prolonged dry periods affect irrigation sources and available water supplies.
August rainfall below normal
Pagasa's assessment of August 2026 showed that most observation stations across Mindanao recorded cumulative rainfall of only zero to 100 millimeters, below the historical normal of 101 to 300 millimeters for the month.
The weather bureau explained that the presence of tropical cyclones inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility does not necessarily mean Mindanao will receive increased rainfall.
Tropical Depression Luis, which entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in early August, tracked farther north near Luzon, where weather systems and enhanced southwest monsoon activity concentrated rainfall.
“The presence of a tropical cyclone within the Philippine Area of Responsibility does not necessarily result in increased rainfall over Mindanao. When tropical cyclone activity and enhanced Habagat are concentrated farther north, rainfall over Mindanao may remain limited,” Pagasa said.
With rainfall activity concentrated over Luzon and parts of the western Visayas, the MPRSD Weather Forecasting Section issued no yellow, orange or red heavy rainfall warnings across Mindanao during August.
It recorded 175 thunderstorm advisories and one rainfall advisory for the month.
Hinatuan records 37.5°C
The lack of rainfall and reduced cloud cover also contributed to elevated daytime temperatures in parts of Mindanao.
Pagasa's Hinatuan station in Surigao del Sur recorded a maximum temperature of 37.5 degrees Celsius on August 9, 2026, surpassing its previous 10-year record of 37.2 degrees Celsius set in August 2016.
Other stations also registered high temperatures during the month. Surigao recorded 36.9 degrees Celsius on August 13, while Laguindingan in Misamis Oriental reached 36.6 degrees Celsius on August 29.
The regional daily average maximum temperature was 32.5 degrees Celsius, according to the assessment.
Pagasa projected that warmer-than-average to much-warmer-than-average conditions would persist in several areas, including the Davao Region and Bukidnon.
Water and power conservation urged
Pagasa warned that prolonged rainfall deficits, combined with warmer temperatures, could increase demand for water and electricity.
“The prevailing below-normal rainfall conditions may increase the potential for reduced water availability, particularly in areas where dry conditions persist. Combined with warmer-than-average temperatures, these conditions may increase water demand, agricultural water requirements, and electricity consumption,” the agency said.
The combined effects could put additional pressure on communities, agricultural producers and utilities as the dry season progresses.
Pagasa encouraged local government units, communities and agricultural stakeholders to conserve water and energy, prepare for possible prolonged dry periods and continue monitoring rainfall conditions and climate advisories. DEF