Florida’s governor’s race is producing sharply conflicting polling results, with some surveys showing Republican Byron Donalds holding a double-digit lead over Democrat David Jolly, while others find the candidates virtually tied.
A Stetson University poll released October 13 found Donalds leading Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent, while a Change Research survey conducted around the same time found the candidates tied at 47 percent each. A separate St. Pete Polls survey also found the candidates tied.
Jolly’s campaign described the results as evidence of “significant momentum” in what it called a “neck-and-neck race.”
Donalds, a congressman endorsed by President Donald Trump, is facing Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later left the party to become a Democrat. The divide comes as Jolly seeks to make the case for a Democratic comeback in a state that has increasingly favored Republicans in recent elections.
Newsweek reached out to Donalds' campaign for comment.
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What the Latest Polls Show
A Stetson University poll released October 13 found Donalds leading Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent among modeled likely voters. The survey was conducted October 1 to 9, with 5 percent undecided and 3 percent supporting another candidate.
Stetson estimated a precision range of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, but noted the online poll does not have a conventional margin of error.
However, a Change Research survey conducted October 8 to 10 found the two candidates tied at 47 percent each. Five percent of respondents were undecided, while 1 percent said they would not vote. The poll's modeled margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Jolly shared the Change Research results showing a virtual tie on X, saying, “Our momentum keeps building. Together, we’ll create a future that works for everyone here in Florida.”
Other recent surveys have produced similarly different results.
A YouGov poll conducted September 28 to October 5 found Donalds leading 47 percent to 45 percent, with 1 percent choosing someone else and 7 percent undecided. The poll's reported margin of error was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
The Jolly campaign described the YouGov poll as “just the latest evidence supporting significant momentum” for the Democratic nominee and his running mate, Gwen Graham.
“A top pollster has found this race tied, but David’s strategy remains the same it has all cycle — crisscross our state, meet Floridians where they are, and share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers,” Jolly-Graham campaign senior adviser Mark Riddle said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
A St. Pete Polls survey conducted October 5 to 7 found Donalds and Jolly tied at 45 percent each, with 4 percent choosing someone else and 7 percent undecided. The survey of 836 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
An NBC 6/Telemundo 51 poll conducted September 28 to October 1 found Donalds ahead 48 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Decision Desk HQ recently shifted Florida’s governor’s race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican,” after previously reporting that Jolly was gaining ground. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections have also rated the race “Lean Republican.”
Why the Florida Governor's Race Matters
DeSantis' departure creates an open-seat contest in a state where Republicans have strengthened their position over recent election cycles. DeSantis won reelection in 2022 by nearly 20 percentage points, and Trump carried Florida by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.
The candidates also face a significant gap in campaign resources. As of September 25, Donalds had raised $134.4 million and spent $91.7 million across his campaign account and political committee, compared with $16.7 million raised and $11.2 million spent by Jolly, according to CBS Miami.
Donalds has Trump's endorsement and has campaigned on priorities including tax cuts and reducing costs for Floridians. Jolly, who served in Congress as a Republican before leaving the party, is running as a Democrat and has sought to appeal to voters beyond the traditional Democratic base.
The race will test Trump's political influence in his adopted home state and Democrats' ability to compete in a state that has increasingly favored Republicans. The race could offer an indication of the political climate in Florida ahead of the November midterm elections, as both parties compete for control of Congress.
"I believe in our conservative mission, and I believe Florida voters know what’s best for our state. This November, they’ll reject socialism, choose common sense, and help us protect and defend the Florida Dream," Donalds wrote on X earlier this month.
When Does Early Voting Begin in Florida?
Florida’s general election is November 3, with early voting available in some counties beginning October 19.
The state’s mandatory early-voting period runs from October 24 through October 31, although counties may offer additional days.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Commander and Gray R. Thomas