US Secretary of State Marco Rubio turned on the charm during a visit to Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery, and an oil deal could be one of the carrots that finally gets the US-India trade agreement over the line.
Rubio went to Jamnagar on Wednesday with a pitch for Mukesh Ambani’s oil empire to buy more Venezuelan crude, refine it into fuel and help Washington turn the country’s vast oil reserves into a bigger source of global supply. And he didn’t hold back on the flattery.
“You have a company with a massive amount of refining capability. I think I should go talk to them,” Rubio said, describing India as a refining “superpower” during his visit to Reliance Industries’ giant Gujarat complex.
The charm offensive definitely had a hardnosed purpose. Jamnagar, the world’s largest “single-site” refining complex, has the specialised equipment needed to process Venezuela’s treacle-thick crude that many refineries struggle to handle.
Persuading Reliance to buy and refine more of it could help expand the market for Venezuelan oil as the US seeks to boost production.
“We think we can be a source of some of its energy inputs,” Rubio said, adding that Washington had discussed Venezuela with India. “I think it's in our interest to have strong allies with diverse energy portfolios.”
The timing is telling. Rubio says Washington and New Delhi are “incredibly close” to sealing a long-delayed trade deal. If Reliance commits to buying more Venezuelan crude, it could be one of the carrots that finally seals the long-troubled deal.
A bigger market for Venezuelan oil would advance a key US energy objective. India, though, doesn’t need Venezuelan crude per se; it needs oil at the right price. But as New Delhi seeks to diversify its supplies amid rising costs for Russian oil, discounted Venezuelan barrels could offer one possible alternative
For Reliance, the opportunity is clear, provided Venezuelan fuel comes at the right price. The company has been sending record volumes of refined fuel overseas, cashing in on strong prices for diesel and aviation fuel.
For India, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude, the profits from refining offer some relief from the cost of buying crude but can’t fully offset it..
“Higher diesel exports and stronger refining margins will certainly help cushion the impact of India’s elevated energy import bill,” says Sumit Ritolia, a senior analyst at Kpler.
India spent $90.6 billion on crude oil imports in the first six months of the 2026-27 financial year, $28.7 billion more than in the same period a year earlier, even though the volume of crude it bought barely changed.
The pressure is showing in the country’s foreign-exchange reserves, which have fallen from a record $785.7 billion in early September to $726 billion the week ended October 9.
The decline reflects several forces, including a higher fuel import bill, foreign investor outflows as well as pressure on the rupee, which has prompted the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars to support the Indian currency.
Reliance’s exports of refined products reached an all-time high in September and are expected to remain elevated in October, according to estimates from commodities analytics firm Kpler. The company exported around 620,000 barrels a day of diesel, alongside roughly 154,000 barrels a day of aviation turbine fuel and kerosene.
About half of its diesel exports go to Europe, with the remainder shipped to markets in Africa, Asia and the US.
Higher international prices for diesel and aviation fuel make refinery exports more profitable and Reliance and other Indian refineries have stepped up production to exploit the opportunities.
“Indian refineries have been operating at over 100 per cent utilisation, supported by relatively limited maintenance activity this year, barring a few refinery-specific turnarounds and unplanned outages,” Ritolia says.
But there’s a catch as India can’t send every extra litre abroad. State-owned Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum must prioritise supplies to the domestic market and the government has kept retail diesel prices largely unchanged despite high international prices.
That has protected consumers and businesses from the global fuel squeeze, but sharply limits the scope for refiners to divert diesel to more profitable export markets.
“India’s retail diesel prices have remained largely unchanged despite elevated global prices. This has shielded domestic consumers from international price volatility and limited demand destruction,” Ritolia says.
Demand at home is also unlikely to slacken with industrial activity, freight transport, agriculture and the festive season expected to keep diesel consumption strong.
Reliance can make hay from the global diesel squeeze but the state-owned refiners have less fuel available for export and to profit from overseas sales, analysts say.
Also, as the country imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude requirements, paying in dollars, it’s acutely exposed when oil prices rise. Refining profits can soften the foreign exchange blow, but they cannot erase a sharply higher import bill.
For India, the global energy turmoil as a result of the US-Israel war on Iran is making its refineries more profitable, but it’s also driving its crude oil import bill higher. The situation is definitely not win-win.