Arch Manning, Dante Moore Not Among Mel Kiper’s Top 5 QBs in 2027 Draft Class

A little over a month ago, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning and Oregon Ducks QB Dante Moore were considered locks to go No. 1 and No. 2 overall in the 2027 NFL draft.

But fast forward five weeks, and neither are even considered top-10 picks by several NFL draft analysts, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper.

Considered the OG of NFL draft analysis, Kiper released his 2027 draft big board on Thursday, and both Manning and Moore were ranked surprisingly low. In fact, both barely made the top-25 cut, and neither were ranked among Kiper’s top five QBs, which are listed below.

1. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
2. Darian Mensah, Miami
3. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
4. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
5. Austin Simmons, Missouri

“Manning has dropped to QB6 on my board, but he's still a top-25 player because of the skill set,” Kiper wrote. “I see the size, mobility and arm strength that NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback. He can make throws rolling out, and he is dangerous as a runner (10 rushing touchdowns last season).

“But Manning is too inconsistent, especially when it comes to accuracy and decision-making. He's going to be a tough evaluation. Watch just about any game he plays, and you'll ride the roller coaster of getting excited about his NFL ceiling and then wondering whether he's ever going to truly put it all together. Manning doesn't see the field as well as other quarterbacks on this list, and he occasionally throws off balance. And while the accuracy is better this season than it was in 2025, it still has to improve. I'm very curious to see how the rest of this season plays out.”

Manning’s fall is attributed to the hot-and-cold nature of his game. He’s looked like a future NFLer at times this year, but he’s also struggled against some average college football competition.

Moore’s drop, however, has more to do with the concussion he suffered against USC and less to do with his actual on-field play. In his four appearances this season, Moore has completed 69.7% of his passes for 926 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

If he returns and plays well down the stretch and into the College Football Playoff, Moore could still end up as a possible top-15 pick come April.

“When Moore is at the top of his game, he's an impressive passer,” Kiper continued. “He changes arm angles, he's mechanically sound, he displays precise ball placement, and there's good touch on his deep ball. Throws look effortless because of his arm strength, and he can deliver strikes while rolling out. There's even some scramble ability there. The toolbox is full.

“But he has to show he can take over some games against top-tier competition. His performance against Penn State in 2025 was exceptional. I thought he was going to build on that and enter the 2026 draft as one of the top QBs on the board. But he couldn't bottle that performance and repeat it against other top teams over the rest of that season.”