Looking At Our Best Week 6 NFL Picks With An Eye On History

My biggest piece of advice each week about betting on the NFL is that the majority of games are close, so take the points.

But last week bucked the trend. The average margin of victory last week was 10.1 points, and included the Packers, Texans and Patriots all winning by 20+ points.

I had a good week, going 4-1, only missing (and missing badly) on the Cardinals/Rams game, when I liked Arizona to keep it close. Wow, Arizona’s defense is horrible.

We also had three OT games last week, but only two winners. That’s pretty hard to do, but it happened. The ending of the Washington/New York game will be studied for years as what not to do in the final seconds.

So while I am sticking to my main credo of taking points, I also don’t mind trying to spot a blowout where it looks like one team has a distinctive edge. It could be injuries, off-the-field stuff, but NFL games can get lopsided. We saw that in Week 5.

Here are my picks for Week 6. Odds from BetMGM.

Houston (+2.5) at Jacksonville

This is another game in England for the Jags, who needed an English miracle to beat the Eagles with one second left. The ending of that game is another one that coaches will study for years. Houston picked up its first win of the season destroying Tennessee, which was a blowout that we saw coming.

What do the Oddsmakers say? Houston is 1-4 against the spread, Jacksonville is 3-2. The Texans have won three of the last four meetings. Four of the last five meetings have hit the under.

The pick: Let’s take the points. Let’s face it, Jacksonville is good, but I don’t think they are capable of blowing anyone out and Trevor Lawrence yelling at his offensive linemen would have been a bigger story had they lost. I think Houston may have found some confidence after what it did to Tennessee.

New Orleans at New York Giants (+1)

Another game that fits perfectly into my ‘take the points’ theory. The Saints have lost three in a row and even the owner has called them out publicly, mildly, but publicly.

What do the Oddsmakers say? The Saints have now lost three in a row straight up, and against the spread. I don’t think Vegas recognizes yet that the Saints are bad. Taking Minnesota last week to cover was easy money.

The pick: I know it was a tie, but New York didn’t lose the game as badly as the Commanders did. New York looks like a solid….just solid…football team. Jameis Winston is bat-crazy, but capable. This is more about how both teams are trending. The Saints are trending down. The Giants are trending up.

New York Jets at New England (-7)

All right so this is where we go into ‘blowout’ territory. New England has won 18, yes, 18 of the last 20 meetings against the Jets. It looks like there’s ‘good Drake Maye’ and ‘bad Drake Maye’. Good Drake Maye is one of the best QBs in the NFL. Bad Drake Maye can lose to anyone. There is no in-between. New England got more good news Saturday when it was announced wide receiver AJ Brown was coming back for this one.

What do the Oddsmakers say? The Patriots are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. New England has won the last three meetings against the Jets and covered the spread in all three.

The pick: I think good Drake Maye shows up, especially at home. The Jets defense is not terrible, but the offense is still scuffing along. I think the Patriots blow it open in the fourth quarter.

LA Chargers (+7.5) at Kansas City

It’s the winless Chargers against the undefeated Chiefs. Are the Chargers really that bad? Are the Chiefs really this good? LA hasn’t been 0-6 since 2000. Who was their QB that year? Current coach Jim Harbaugh.

What do the Oddsmakers say? The Chargers have lost eight in a row against the spread. The Chiefs are 2-2 this season against the number. LA won both games last year.

The pick: I have some friends who know and coached with Jim Harbaugh (yes, I have friends, I’m not AI) and I just think his act just wears thin after a while. But I think the Chargers put everything into this one. The Chargers are not this bad. They can’t be. I don’t know that they win, but I don’t see KC winning by more than the spread.

Buffalo (-4.5) at Las Vegas

This is an odd number by the books. Josh Allen keeps doing Josh Allen things for Buffalo. The Raiders may be a bad team with a good record right now.

What do the Oddsmakers say? Both teams are 4-1 against the spread. The last seven meetings between the two have all hit the over. The Bills have won the last three meetings.

The pick: I’m just not sold on the Raiders. I think we saw who they really are against New England, a decent defense with a limited offense. I love taking the points, but this one screams blowout to me. Hey, it’s good to have rules, but also know when to break them.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com