Wisconsin Football is Surprisingly Narrow Home Underdogs vs. No. 16 USC

Wisconsin just played its ugliest game all year in the road loss at UCLA.

Despite bottling up the Bruins' rugged rushing attack, limiting them to 44 rushing yards through the first three quarters and just 10 points, the Badgers were doomed by an inability to get anything going on offense coupled with an inability to get off the field on third down, plus a smattering of mind-numbing penalties.

The game played out in an interesting way for Wisconsin. Despite accomplishing arguably its top priority in limiting UCLA's ground game, a big aspect of the Badgers' downfall in Pasadena was, surprisingly, a porous pass defense against a backup quarterback.

UCLA's Ty Dieffenbach tossed for 264 yards and one interception on 67% completion, including 8-of-13 for 150 yards on third down. After its secondary was repeatedly bested by a backup quarterback, Wisconsin must now gear up to face the nation's second-leading passer in USC gunslinger Jayden Maiava, who's thrown for 2,045 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions on 68% completion.

That's just one of the reasons why the early line for the Saturday night showdown in Madison seems curiously narrow; Wisconsin opens up as a 2.5-point home underdog against No. 16 USC, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Vegas foresees a close game in Madison

This is a pretty shockingly narrow spread. The No. 16 Trojans are 6-1 with a 3-1 mark in the Big Ten, their only loss coming to an Oregon team that played its best game in an otherwise shaky season so far.

What's more, USC's talent is clearly on another level than the Badgers. From the electrifying passing game to some of the athletes on the defensive side of the ball, the Trojans have accumulated quite a bit of talent and while that's only part of the equation, it can cover up a lot of other deficiencies.

Still, USC's last two games were one-score affairs against middling Big Ten teams. It toppled Washington at home in a narrow 25-21 victory, and then went on the road and beat Penn State 31-23 in the white-out game.

If there's an area the Trojans appear to have a soft underbelly, it's their pass defense, which ranks No. 109 nationally allowing 239.0 yards per game. But one can't just assume the Badgers can exploit that given they managed just 66 passing yards at the Rose Bowl last week.

Ultimately, Vegas believes Wisconsin can keep this game within one score. After what we saw last week, I'm not sure I'm on the same page quite yet.

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