Gold Glove nominations were announced this week, with three Red Sox players landing on the list. You already know exactly who they are, even if you hadn’t heard the news: Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Caleb Durbin.
Having 33% of your defense made up of young, defensively elite players is a great thing, even if two of those players still have plenty of question marks about their offensive profiles. But will any of them take home the hardware this year, and do any of them have a chance at taking home the Platinum Glove, which goes to the best fielder in each league regardless of position? Let’s take a look.
Ceddanne Rafaela
Rafaela and Pete Crowe-Armstong are probably going to battle for the title of Baseball’s Best Defensive Centerfielder for the next decade. But for this year at least, PCA finished pretty far out in front by Fielding Run Value, posting a league-leading 26 Outs-above-average compared to Ceddanne’s ninth-place (second-place amongst oufielders) 16. But PCA plays in the National League, of course. Ceddy’s 16 OAA were tops amongst all AL outfielders, and were third overall in the AL behind two shortstops: Bobby Witt, Jr. (24) and Ezequiel Duran (17).
‘Nuff Cedd made six plays that had a catch probability of 10% or less. Here’s the one that required him to cover the most distance in the least amount of time, 76 feet in 4.1 seconds:
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abretu finished with just 2 OAA this year, significantly down from last year’s 8 and just 41st among all outfielders. He didn’t make a single play with a catch probability below 20%, let alone the several five-percenters that Ceddanne tracked down. But we all know that range isn’t Wilyer’s best defensive attribute, his arm is. For my money, this is the prettiest throw he uncorked all season:
So, with his OAA numbers not looking so hot, Abreu is going to struggle to defend his Gold Glove and has no shot at the Platinum, right? Not so fast.
OAA is just one of two primary defensive stats currently en vogue amongst people who chatter about baseball on the internet. The other one is Defensive Runs Saved. And guess what? Abreu led all of baseball this year with 28 in that category. He finished 5 DRS ahead of second-place Bryce Turang, 7 ahead of his teammate Ceddanne Rafaela, and a whopping 12 ahead of PCA.
How could these two metrics, both of which purport to provide a wholistic measurement of a player’s fielding value, be so different and which one is better? Absolutely no one knows! Everyone merely choses which one to use based on which one does a better job proving whatever point they are actively trying to make.
Caleb Durbin
Durbin finished the season with 6 OAA. That was significantly behind Manny Machado’s league-leading 12 amongst third-sackers, but it was the best mark in the American League at that position, putting the Durbinator in prime position to take home the hardware. As for DRS, he finished 19th in baseball with 13. This was again tops amongst AL third baseman, though behind Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman in the National League.
Here’s what I’d go with as his best play of the year, a diving stop on a ball that left the bat at 105.5 MPH and nearly resulted in a double play: