Africa’s 2050 urban future: Build deliberately or pay the price—Experts

… as Prof. Akinlawon Mabogunje third public lecture holds

Africa’s rapid urbanisation is set to reshape its economic and social landscape by 2050, but experts warn that without deliberate planning, strategic investment and effective urban governance, the continent risks turning its cities into centres of congestion, poverty and environmental stress.

This warning formed the central message surrounding the Akinlawon Mabogunje third public lecture, organised by PALM Foundation, on Tuesday, in Lagos, where attention was focused on the urgent need for African countries, and Nigeria, in particular, to rethink urban development and build cities capable of supporting sustainable growth, economic prosperity and improved living standards.

Stephen Ajadi, a founding principal of Ruban Architecture Office, and lecturer at the third Mabogunje public lecture, titled; “Palimpsest and Provenance: The Identity and Trajectory of the African City”, said that African urbanism has a fragmented history.

He emphasised that colonialism and conflict have proven to be major mutative social forces, erasing and overwriting the initial urban trajectory of Africa across the sectors of development, so that African cities stand as urban palimpsests of Western influence and sometimes control.

However, he identified an open window of turning things around for the continent, when he said, “There is hope, the window for a macro-calibration is now open. Most of the city Africans will live in by 2050 is unbuilt, most of the world’s new urban land will be African, and its builders have a median age of 19.

“The new African city must stand on its own land, finance, designers and technology chosen in our lifetime. For the first time, we’re at a period where spatial reorganisation of urban space can occur on the terms of Africa itself, deviating from the text of the Berlin Conference,” he said.

Furthermore, he disclosed that 40 percent of buildings and 75 percent of the infrastructure projected to exist in 2050 are yet in existence, 200 billion square metres of floor space will be added by mid-century, mostly in Africa, and Asia, and Africa’s urban population will double to 1.4 billion.

Ajadi noted that the African city is a palimpsest, and that beneath the fragments lays an original text, written in many hands from Nabta Playa to Ile-Ife and Ngazargamu.

He reiterated that Mabogunje’s philosophy that space is the instrument of development and development the deliberate reorganisation of space in context, is what Africans need.

“The finest memorial to Mabogunje, a man who spent six decades reading our space and explaining it to us, is to go on writing it for ourselves, and the countless generations after us, who will carry on with the right language, will and heart,” he stated.

Folasade Ogunsola, vice-chancellor at the University of Lagos, on behalf of the board of trustees to the third PALM Foundation public lecture in celebration of their father, a man, she said believed deeply in Nigeria and in the capacity of Nigerians to build a better country, said, “Our father, understood that cities are not just places where people live, but are engines of economic growth, centres of innovation, marketplaces of ideas and opportunities and critical instruments for national development.

“His scholarship helped us to understand the complex relationships between urbanisation, migration, industrialisation, housing, livelihoods and economic transformation.”

Besides, she emphasised that Mabogunje believes that the city and the economy were inseparable.

“A city with reliable transport, affordable housing, efficient markets, productive industries and good governance can unlock the potential of millions of people, while a poorly planned city can decrease poverty and create much-needed hardship.

“Today, as Nigeria and other African cities grow rapidly, these insights are more relevant than ever,” she noted.

Olusegun Mimiko, former governor of Ondo State, explained that urbanism had always existed in Africa, hence, there is no narration that it was an input from Europe.

However, he noted that every city is not about meticulous planning, but there are peripheral developments, which would be a consequence of institutional arrangement in those cities.

“While we have informal settlements, people who have no title but because of arrangement, must exist. We must have the ideal planning in an African city to marry the formal and informal settlers.

“Any development that does not take cognisance of the rural areas, will only complicate development at the cities,” he said.

Mimiko said that as mentee of Mabogunje, one of the things he learnt is that any endeavour that does not contribute to improving livelihood is not worth it.

Oyewole Okunfolure, chairman of the technical advisory council (TAC) said the goal was not merely to celebrate Mabogunje’s achievements, but to ensure that his legacy endures from generation to generations.

“Our ambition is not merely to celebrate the achievements of a remarkable scholar, but to ensure that his intellectual legacy continues to inspire generations of scholars and contribute meaningfully to Africa’s development,” he said.