Between quick wins and big dreams lies Burnham's biggest test

Giving the north of England a crack at hosting the globe's biggest sports event might seem about as Brand Burnham as it gets.

Seven million pounds of taxpayers' cash is a teeny drop in the context of the overall Budget, to pay for the government to take a closer look at possible plans. But the idea is sure to get tongues wagging - and headline writers scribbling.

A "Northern Games" in 2040 or beyond just might create a massive sense of national feel-good, jobs and development, as the Olympics in east London did more than a decade ago.

But it's a promise of a possibility at least a decade away. And what could be more in tune with the Manchester-loving prime minister and his proud Yorkshireman chancellor than a sporting plan fixed firmly on the top geographical chunk of the country?

It's Brand Burnham alright, popular with most of the Labour backbenches, just add the Twiglets and the pint in the stands.

The prime minister and his team are proud of a distinct feature of their government so far, focusing on small things that might make a big difference: fines for blaring out music on your phone on the bus, cracking down on "rip-off" parking charges, investing a small amount of cash in a big ambition for a sporting event in future.

It's what some ministers call "the politics of trying" – putting time and effort into ideas that you don't pretend are revolutionary, but give direction, and a sense of sympathy to the public.

It's an echo, deliberate or not, of another Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, who sent memos to his cabinet in 1974 demanding "little things that mean a lot".

He ended up with a list of plans including nationalising small breweries to stop them being gulped up by big firms (paging Andy Burnham), freezing phone installation charges for pensioners, and plans for empty office blocks.

But the next few days could bring an end to that "politics of trying" phase, with one senior official describing the coming Budget as "the first proper moment for the government, which will then be in the pipeline for the 10-year plan, then a very difficult spending review".

An influential Labour MP told me: "The Budget has to be the beginning of the future story."

A fancy way of saying, beyond the short-term announcements and clear long-term aspirations, what is this government actually going to do?

"Steady as she goes," is what one well-connected senior MP predicts, and how expectations of the Budget are being managed across Westminster. They tell me: "Not doing a lot might be more reassuring to people than promising the earth with whose money?"

The boss of one well-known high street business told me they are even hoping there won't be any big bazookas. "Just do no harm," they implored the Chancellor John Healey.

"The hole is too big that they are trying to fill, so my view is don't try and do anything big to help because you don't have the money, but don't do anything to harm us either."

After all, the chancellor is bound by Labour's manifesto promises not to fiddle with the main taxes – income tax, VAT, National Insurance for workers. And you don't need me to remind you that public spending, borrowing and tax are all at historic highs.

Chuck in prices jacking up again because of war in the Middle East and there isn't much money to spray around. In fact, some big cuts to public spending are already pencilled in for the later years of this parliament.

But the widespread suggestion that you'll be able to blink and miss the Budget has got some hackles up in the Treasury. A budget, by its very nature, can never be a small event - it sets billions upon billions of taxes and spending decisions.

And there are likely to be extra taxes on banks, vows to sweep away some business regulation, particularly for small business, more powers passing to local leaders under the guise of devolution and more action on energy bills which are heading back up again.

John Healey has made it clear publicly and to staff, that he wants to encourage people with the guts and drive to start a business. One source said: "If you are taking on John's mantra about talking up Britain then you can't say, 'Nothing to see here'."

Whatever else the chancellor brings to Parliament in his red box, do not expect him to arrive with all the solutions to the country's very well-documented problems, whether that's getting the economy growing more convincingly, sorting out gaps in defence cash, welfare, social care, or new ways to pay off the country's groaning debts more quickly.

One former minister suggests even if Healey and Burnham had stumbled upon all the answers in a few months, it's just not possible to fix everything at the same time because of the constraints on the economy.

They wondered: "Is he going to invest in growth? Is he going to put everything he has into the challenges people will face this winter? Is he going to throw it at defence? There is just not enough to tackle all these problems simultaneously - ministers are going to be exposed to the cold light of day."

Burnham and Healey have to find a way of maintaining the balance in an unusually happy Labour Party.

MPs talk of ministers and Burnham himself being more visible and approachable in Parliament, knocking around with colleagues in the evening, fewer "golden slips" doled out when ministers were excused from voting alongside colleagues so they could get on with their important jobs.

One minister told me they'd had to tell their private office not to arrange for them to be "slipped" , from going to the Commons in the evening to see backbenchers.

It's paying off in the mood among MPs. One told me: "You're not feeling like the only way you can ever have a chat with a minister is by arranging an appointment for three months down the line – the soft touches really matter."

A party that feels the boss has their back is more likely to be receptive to hard decisions, that's simple psychology, and guess what? Politicians are humans too.

But the equilibrium is fragile. One source involved in the Budget prep told me the government "is like a seesaw".

"It's John and James on the right (Healey and Purnell, Burnham's chief of staff), Lou (Haigh) on the left, and Andy balancing it in the middle," adding that "Andy is not as on the left as many of his supporters want to believe".

That balance could be more strained in the coming weeks as choices over immigration and welfare reform loom after the Budget. And how the numbers stack up on Wednesday matters intensely too.

The Labour left will be looking keenly to see if people who are really struggling financially receive meaningful support.

Those on the right will be scouring the statement for measures that display a tight control on spending and help businesses grow. Even small moves could upset the seesaw.

One former minister doubts there will be anything major enough to upset the delicate balance, not because of an abundance of caution but they suggest, "John has been struggling a bit - he hasn't gone into this with a philosophical direction".

There is also a risk that by deferring big decisions until the Spending Review next year - which sets out longer-term spending than an annual budget - it looks like the government is just putting off the hard stuff.

Another acknowledges the danger of looking like it's a budget on the never-never, delaying decisions on "welfare, defence and social care – Andy goes in with political stock quite high – he needs to spend it on difficult stuff and there isn't much sign of it yet".

In an interview with The Times, Andy Haldane, a former chief economist at the Bank of England and an ally of Burnham, said he feared the government would deliver a "mañana budget" that deferred difficult decisions on public spending and "doesn't speak to the urgency of now".

With friends like these…

It's a good bet that the opposition parties will pile in on this angle, accusing Healey and Burnham of ignoring the long-term pressures next week. One prominent opposition politician said: "This Budget can only be postponing, you have to assume that's cynical because you are going to have an early election, or you are storing up a car crash for next year (the Spending Review)."

Downing Street sources counter that argument with Burnham's decision to unpick the expensive triple lock to pay, at least in part, for future social care. Or his bolder approach to potentially ask to re-enter the EU, or certainly pursue much closer ties.

And remember that list of small things that could make a big difference? They have made political decisions that the polls suggest voters have noticed.

Even some of Burnham's backers admit quietly that he is aware his first job in office was clear: to show action, to cheer up his party, and that seems to have had a positive effect in the polls.

His long-term view of the UK he wants is well known – with devolution, a national care service, and greater public involvement in the economy.

But the middle bit?

One official says: "Unless the prime minister has said something quite specific about something everyone is scrambling around trying to work out what he wants to do."

Another well-connected source says: "The challenge has always been with this project, how do people feel in the medium term – it's huge."

​​Burnham and his chancellor's start in office has been broadly successful if you look at the polling, or read the mood inside the Labour party.

Their dreams of future glories, long-term plans and policies, and gold medals on UK soil could point ahead to many years time.

But neither deal with the issues that need to be confronted in the middle.

The chancellor was working late in his Downing Street flat last night, finishing off his plans after having fish pie for tea, conscious his first Budget starts the between times - and they're almost here.

Lead image: Future Publishing via Getty

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• Andy Burnham