The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth to 0.9% in both 2026 and 2027. The updated forecast, released on October 13, is down from its July projection of 1.1% for each year.
The IMF report says high global energy prices are supporting Russia’s economy despite a decline in supplies caused by Ukrainian strikes that damaged oil infrastructure.
The report says the overall outlook is weak for energy-intensive economies and those dependent on oil and gas imports. Russia, however, benefits from “favorable factors associated with increased defense spending” that partially offset this weakness.
In late September, Russia’s Economic Development Ministry raised its growth forecast for 2026 from 0.4% to 0.6%. The ministry expects growth to accelerate from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029. Russia’s central bank forecasts growth of 0 to 1% in 2026 and 1.5 to 2.5% in 2027.
In early October, the World Bank kept its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 at 0.8%. It expects Russia’s economy to grow by 0.7% in both 2027 and 2028.
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