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Seven final surveys show Lorne Doerkson's Conservatives lead as B.C. votes today

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Seven final public opinion surveys conducted and released in the closing days of the British Columbia’s provincial general election campaign and on election morning put Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives ahead of David Eby’s BC NDP, as voters across the province head to the voting stations today, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026.

Voting stations are open today from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters can go to any voting station to cast their ballot, they are not restricted to voting stations within their own home riding.

Daily Hive Urbanized will provide election night coverage tonight.

Just ahead of election day, polling companies Research Co., Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Leger, Pallas Data, Forum Research, and Pollara all found a Conservative lead, showing the reversal and narrowing of the large gap between the BC NDP and the Conservatives at the outset of the provincial election campaign period a month ago.

Among decided voters, including those leaning towards a party where reported, the leads for the Conservatives ranged from four per cent to 5.9 per cent. However, their findings differed considerably on support for Emily Lowan’s BC Greens, ranging from 10 per cent to 17 per cent.

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Research Co. placed the Conservatives at 44 per cent, followed by the BC NDP at 40 per cent and the BC Greens at 10 per cent. OneBC and CentreBC each received two per cent. These figures represent decided likely voters.

In the Ipsos survey, the Conservatives received 44 per cent, compared with 39 per cent for the BC NDP and 13 per cent for the BC Greens. OneBC received two per cent and CentreBC received one per cent. The results do not include respondents who were undecided or expressed no preference.

Mainstreet recorded the highest BC Greens support of the seven surveys. It placed the Conservatives at 42.9 per cent, the BC NDP at 37.2 per cent, and the BC Greens at 17 per cent. OneBC received 1.8 per cent, while CentreBC received one per cent. These figures include people who identified a party when asked which way they were leaning, with those still undecided removed.

Leger’s survey produced the same standings for the three largest parties as Ipsos: 44 per cent Conservative, 39 per cent BC NDP, and 13 per cent BC Greens among decided voters. OneBC received two per cent, and CentreBC received one per cent. Leger also found that six per cent of respondents remained undecided, down from 12 per cent in its previous survey earlier in the campaign period.

Pallas Data recorded the largest Conservative lead in the seven surveys, placing the Conservatives at 45.2 per cent, the BC NDP at 39.3 per cent, and the BC Greens at 12 per cent. Those figures include decided voters and people leaning towards a party.

Forum Research found the Conservatives at 44.5 per cent, followed by the BC NDP at 39.5 per cent, the BC Greens at 12 per cent, and other parties at four per cent among decided and leaning voters.

Pollara’s survey placed the Conservatives at 42 per cent, the BC NDP at 37 per cent, and the BC Greens at 13 per cent among decided voters. OneBC received four per cent, while CentreBC received three per cent.

Pollara also produced a separate popular vote projection accounting for which parties have candidates in each riding. For respondents whose preferred party was not on their local ballot, the projection used second choice preferences to redistribute support. That adjustment put the Conservatives at 45 per cent, the BC NDP at 39 per cent, the BC Greens at 12 per cent, and OneBC and CentreBC at two per cent each.

Ipsos, Mainstreet, and Forum Research explicitly stated that based on their latest findings, the Doerkson’s Conservatives could potentially form a majority government.

However, the Conservative lead across all seven surveys conducted in the final days of the provincial election campaign period does not guarantee victory or a majority government for Doerkson’s party.

The gauged province-wide support indicated in the surveys does not translate directly into seats; the outcome depends on individual riding races and which voters actually cast ballots. British Columbians are electing an MLA for each of the 93 provincial ridings, meaning a party needs at least 47 MLA seats for a majority. Before Premier David Eby called the snap provincial election, his BC NDP-led provincial government had a slim majority of 47 seats.

Metro Vancouver ridings remain closely contested in the Ipsos and Research Co. surveys, with both finding a four per cent lead for the Conservative. Ipsos placed the Conservatives at 44 per cent and the BC NDP at 40 per cent, while Research Co. recorded 45 per cent and 41 per cent, respectively.

Leger also recorded a 44 per cent Conservative lead over the BC NDP’s 40 per cent in Metro Vancouver. Pallas placed the Conservatives at 46.2 per cent and the BC NDP at 40.7 per cent, while Pollara found a wider gap of 44 per cent Conservative to 37 per cent BC NDP.

Ipsos and Research Co. found the BC NDP at 46 per cent on Vancouver Island, ahead of the Conservatives at 32 per cent in the Ipsos survey and 35 per cent in Research Co.’s findings.

Other surveys suggested a closer race on Vancouver Island. Leger placed the BC NDP at 40 per cent and the Conservatives at 39 per cent, while Forum Research recorded 39.2 per cent for the Conservatives and 38.3 per cent for the BC NDP. Pallas found the BC NDP at 41.5 per cent, the Conservatives at 32 per cent, and the BC Greens at 23.6 per cent. Pollara’s Vancouver Island region, which also includes the Sunshine Coast and Powell River, gave the BC NDP a 39 per cent lead over the Conservatives at 35 per cent.

Conservative support was much stronger elsewhere. Ipsos recorded a 53 per cent Conservative lead in its combined Southern Interior and North region, compared to the BC NDP at to 31 per cent. Research Co. placed the Conservatives at 58 per cent in the Fraser Valley, 51 per cent in Northern B.C., and 48 per cent in Southern B.C.

Ipsos also found growing appetite for a change in provincial government. Some 53 per cent of respondents believed another provincial party should take over. Meanwhile, 31 per cent believed the Eby government had performed well enough to deserve re-election, and 16 per cent were undecided.

There was still room for some last-minute movement.

Ipsos found 15 per cent of respondents with a party preference said there was a good chance they would switch to another party’s candidate. That included 27 per cent of BC Greens supporters, compared with 14 per cent of BC NDP supporters and 13 per cent of Conservative supporters.

Research Co. similarly found BC Greens supporters were more open to changing their choice: 19 per cent said they might switch, compared with seven per cent each among BC NDP and Conservative supporters. Overall, 89 per cent of its decided voters said they were certain of their selection.

These seven final surveys used very different methods and respondent groups.

Research Co. conducted its online survey from Oct. 21 to 23, among 802 likely voters in B.C., including 722 decided voters. Their survey has a margin of error of +/-3.5 per cent for the full sample and +/-3.7 per cent for decided voters, 19 times out of 20.

Ipsos conducted its survey from Oct. 20 to 22, among 1,260 adult British Columbians, including 801 online respondents and 459 interviewed by telephone. Ipsos reports a credibility interval — rather than a conventional margin of error — of +/-3.3 per cent overall, 19 times out of 20. For questions asked only of online respondents, the interval is +/-4.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet Research conducted its survey from Oct. 21 to 23, among 1,043 adult B.C. residents, using automated telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones. They report a margin of error of +/-three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Leger conducted its online survey from Oct. 20 to 22, among 1,072 adult B.C. residents. Its non-probability online sample cannot be given a conventional margin of error. For comparison purposes, Leger notes that a probability sample of the same size would have a margin of error of +/-three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Pallas Data conducted its survey on Oct. 22, among 702 adults living in the province who were eligible to vote in election. Interviews were conducted through automated calls to landlines and cellphones. The company reports a margin of error of +/-3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Forum Research conducted its automated telephone survey on Oct. 23, among 765 adult B.C. residents. Its decided and leaning voter results were based on 731 respondents. The company reports a margin of error of +/-four per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Pollara conducted its survey from Oct. 15 to 21, among 2,202 adult B.C. residents, including 1,502 online respondents and 700 through automated telephone calls. Its decided voter results were based on 1,950 respondents. The online panel could not be assigned a conventional margin of error; for comparison, a probability sample of 2,202 respondents would have a margin of error of +/-2.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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