Key Facts
- Lawsuit: The US Justice Department asks a federal court to block Alaska from certifying its Senate result if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses.
- Why: It says a candidate with the same name, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., could mislead voters.
- Next: No hearing or ruling has been reported; Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket prices Democrat Mary Peltola at 74.5% to win Alaska and Democrats at 67.5% for the Senate (as of 6:22 a.m. ET, 24 October).
The US Justice Department has sued to stop Alaska from certifying its Senate election result if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses on 3 November, according to reports on 23 October. The case is one more flashpoint in the 2026 US midterm elections, where control of the Senate is still open.
The department argues that another man named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is on the ballot to confuse voters. President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday that he was the one who said to bring the case.
What the Lawsuit Asks For
The suit was filed in the US District Court for the District of Alaska and asks the court to bar certification of any result affected by voter confusion. The department says it should apply if Sullivan does not win.
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. appears on the ballot with no party label. State election officials tried to remove him in June, but Alaska courts kept him on.
Reactions and What Is Unclear
Peltola, the Democratic nominee, has called the suit a political threat to overturn an election. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, said the department should not have filed it.
No judge has set a hearing, and no court has ruled. It is also unclear whether federal law lets the department stop a state from certifying a result after voters have cast their ballots.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Alaska Senate winner (Polymarket, about US$1.6 million traded): Peltola 74.5%, Sullivan 25.5%.
- Control of the US Senate (Polymarket, about US$8.9 million traded): Democrats 67.5%, Republicans 32.5%.
- Control of the US House (Polymarket, about US$21.2 million traded): Democrats 91.5%, Republicans 8.5%.
Prices are the implied probability of each outcome as of 6:22 a.m. ET on Saturday, 24 October. They are real-money bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Polls Before Election Day
The New York Times/Siena poll released on 21 October showed Democratic House candidates ahead 52% to 41% among likely voters. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found Democrats ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters.
The Senate is closer than the House, which is why one state with a legal fight can matter. For the wider numbers, see our midterm polls data room.
What It Means for US Readers
If the Alaska race is close, a court fight over certification could delay the final result in a Senate seat that helps decide control of the chamber. Investors who watch Washington for tariff and sanctions policy would then wait longer to know who sets the agenda in 2027.
Voters in Alaska use ranked-choice voting, so the order of choices counts if no one wins a majority. Results are not expected to be certified until after Election Day.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Justice Department suing over Alaska’s Senate election?
It argues that a candidate with the same name as Sen. Dan Sullivan could mislead voters. It asks a court to block certification if Sullivan loses.
Who is Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.?
He is a candidate on Alaska’s Senate ballot with no party label. Alaska courts kept him on the ballot after officials tried to remove him.
Has a court ruled on the lawsuit?
No ruling or hearing had been reported as of 24 October. We will update when the court acts.
What do prediction markets say about Alaska?
On Polymarket, Peltola was at 74.5% to win the seat at 6:22 a.m. ET on 24 October. These are bets, not polls, and prices can move quickly.
When is Election Day?
Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Polls open and close under each state’s rules.
Sources: Polymarket, complaint, US District Court for the District of Alaska, Alaska Beacon, Times/Siena poll coverage.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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