SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has endured a volatile first few months on the public market, leaving IPO investors weighing whether to hold or lock in their gains.
SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, at an IPO price of $135 per share, raising approximately $85.7 billion in gross proceeds.
SPCX subsequently reached an intraday high of $225 before falling to a low of $104. The stock closed at $147 on October 23, leaving IPO investors with an unrealized gain of approximately 9.25%.
The latest closing price remains approximately 34.6% below the post-IPO high. Shares fell 9.14% on October 22 to $144.75 before recovering 1.89% in the following session, reflecting continued reassessment of the company’s growth prospects and valuation.
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year, while net income reached $4.4 billion, reversing a $1.1 billion loss in the same period of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA surged 306% to $8.8 billion, while operating income reached $2.8 billion.
The Artificial Intelligence segment generated $7.56 billion in revenue, up from $813 million a year earlier, while connectivity revenue rose 69% to $5.25 billion. Space operations revenue increased 6% to $1.77 billion, highlighting the growing contributions of satellite broadband and AI beyond rocket launches.
Starlink remains a key growth driver, with 13.6 million consumer subscribers as of September 30, up from 12 million in June and 7.2 million a year earlier. Consumer revenue reached $3.12 billion, while enterprise and government revenue totalled $2.13 billion. Connectivity operating income rose 99% year over year to $2.37 billion.
SpaceX expansion
SpaceX is also expanding into mobile connectivity through a proposed acquisition of licenses covering 800 MHz of spectrum. Announced after the quarter ended, the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory approval and other conditions. Its success will depend on expanding subscriber numbers and services while maintaining profitability.
Meanwhile, Artificial Intelligence is growing through cloud services agreements, the acquisition of Cursor, and AI applications, including Grok Bot. SpaceX reported 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate computing capacity as of September 30.
However, this expansion requires substantial investment. Capital expenditure reached $19.59 billion in the third quarter, including $16.44 billion for Artificial Intelligence, exceeding total quarterly revenue of $14.6 billion.
Although capital expenditure is not an immediate income-statement expense, it can pressure cash flow and raise questions about investment returns.
SpaceX’s AI opportunity depends on sustained demand, profitable contracts, and efficient use of computing capacity. Competition from established cloud providers and other AI infrastructure companies could also weigh on margins.
Capital expenditure remains a broader risk, as spending on AI infrastructure, satellites and launch systems could pressure cash flow if returns fall short of expectations. Starship delays, technical setbacks or cost overruns could further undermine the investment case.
Valuation presents another challenge: despite trading above its IPO price, SPCX remains well below its post-listing high. Slower AI growth, rising costs, or disappointing guidance could trigger further losses, while additional share issuance could dilute existing shareholders.
SPCX stock investment case
Nevertheless, SpaceX stock remains a potential hold for long-term investors who can tolerate volatility. Its third-quarter results and expanding Starlink subscriber base strengthen the growth case.
Ultimately, SpaceX’s ability to convert growth into sustainable cash flow and attractive investment returns will determine whether SPCX remains a hold. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings, Starlink subscriber growth, AI profitability, and capital expenditure.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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