Corruption is a top concern for Brazilian voters ahead of runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Corruption is a top concern for many Brazilian voters ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff between far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and left-leaning Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. But experts say its greatest impact may not be on which candidates voters choose, but on whether they decide to sit out of the election altogether.

In the minds of many Brazilians, both candidates are associated with graft. Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion, while Lula spent 19 months in prison on corruption and money laundering charges that were later annulled.

For those who strongly support either candidate, such alleged ties will do little to curb their enthusiasm. But experts say that a generalized perception of corruption can increase abstention and anti-incumbency sentiment, potentially benefiting Bolsonaro, who received 2.2 million more votes than Lula in the first round.

Here’s a look at how corruption could impact Brazil’s presidential runoff.

Brazil is highly polarized

During the first round, many lined up to cast their votes wearing either red hats and T-shirts — signaling support for Lula’s party — or the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag adopted by Bolsonaro’s movement, reflecting the polarization gripping the country.

Supporters of Bolsonaro and Lula are highly distrustful of the other side and view their opponents as a threat. Such voters are less likely to give weight to allegations of corruption, experts say.

“We have a great ability to filter information that goes against our beliefs,” said Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “People don’t want to discover the truth about their candidates, they want to beat the opponent.”

Camila Tobji de Aquino, a 19-year-old student of pedagogy and psychology, thinks that corruption is a cross-partisan issue and a significant problem in Brazil. But her main concern is what she sees as the threat Flávio Bolsonaro poses to democracy.

“If I were to vote only for a candidate not tied to any corruption, I would vote blank,” she said. “But that’s not the choice Brazil is facing. For me it’s a question of being able to vote in the next election.”

Abstention is increasing

A wide-ranging scandal involving politicians and judges at Brazil’s Supreme Court dominated headlines ahead of the presidential election, placing corruption at the heart of public debate.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who chaired the legal case that put former President Jair Bolsonaro in prison for his attempted coup, is suspected of having ties to the former head of the failed Banco Master bank, as is Flávio Bolsonaro. Both have denied wrongdoing.

For many Brazilians, the Banco Master scandal stirs up memories of Operation Car Wash, the largest corruption and money-laundering investigation in Brazilian history that ensnared dozens of politicians after it was launched in 2014.

Repeated corruption scandals may drive up abstention and affect undecided voters, said Laura Chelidonopoulos, who has studied corruption and is a political science PhD candidate at the University of Pittsburgh. “People become disenchanted with politics,” she said. “They have less motivation to actually choose between one of these two sides.”

More than 33 million people, or 21% of the electorate, did not vote on Oct. 4, the highest first-round abstention rate since 1998. First-round abstention has risen gradually since 2006, according to data from Brazil’s electoral court.

A desire for change

José Tainan, a 36-year-old kitchen assistant from Rio de Janeiro’s Penha complex of favelas, said he struggled to remember when he last voted in an election, but thinks it was probably for Lula back in the 2000s.

He cited corruption as the top reason why he stopped voting.

“There are no good options. Neither one of them suits me. I would rather justify why I didn’t vote,” he said.

Voting is mandatory for citizens aged 18 to 70. Those who fail to vote without a valid reason face a small fine.

Matusalem Aguiar, a 54-year-old taxi driver from Rio’s impoverished Belford Roxo municipality, said he would prefer that only candidates with clean records be allowed to enter politics. Still, he will disregard the graft investigations faced by Bolsonaro and vote for him anyway.

“There needs to be a change,” Aguiar said, as he waited for his next passenger in downtown Rio. “Some people have a lot of power and they’re not managing the country in the right way.”

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