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The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Northwestern is favored by -7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -295. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. Michigan State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.
- Northwestern vs. Michigan State Pick: Northwestern -7
My Michigan State vs. Northwestern best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Northwestern vs Michigan State Odds
- Northwestern vs Michigan State point spread: Northwestern -7 (-115), Michigan State +7 (-105)
- Northwestern vs Michigan State over/under: 49.5 (-108o / -110u)
- Northwestern vs Michigan State moneyline: Northwestern -295, Michigan State +240
Northwestern football has been one of the best early-season surprise storylines. The Wildcats are 4-1 and ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2020. The team is rolling under David Braun, but now it’ll face off against the last coach who had it ranked.
Saturday will also be a homecoming of sorts for QB Aidan Chiles. After spending two seasons in East Lansing leading the Spartans, Chiles lost his job and his head coach before entering the transfer portal searching for not-quite-as-green pastures.
What plagued Chiles at Michigan State has not seemed to be an issue this season. He has zero interceptions and is completing 71.4% of his passes, the best mark in the Big Ten. He has also already added six rushing touchdowns, matching a career high.
Chiles has been terrific but hasn’t been asked to be Superman anymore. The Northwestern offense is balanced and efficient.
We saw this running game led by Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon torch Penn State for over 400 yards on the ground. The Cats rank 22nd in success rate this season and 29th in explosiveness, something we rarely saw from Northwestern in previous seasons.
The defense hasn’t been as strong as the offense; however, it has done a great job preventing big plays. The Wildcats have also been able to clamp down when it’s needed most, sitting 23rd in points per opportunity despite ranking outside the top 100 in success rate allowed.
They have kept points off the board, but eventually allowing teams to move the ball at will is going to bite them.
Injuries are also starting to pile up for the Cats, especially in the secondary.
After four straight losing seasons, Michigan State tabbed former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald to turn things around in East Lansing. The Spartans started the season 2-0, but have dropped four straight heading into Saturday.
After being fired for cause amidst hazing allegations, Fitzgerald sued Northwestern for wrongful termination. You can be sure that he will be seeking revenge on Saturday, as well.
After backing up Chiles for two seasons, Alessio Milivojevic eventually took over the starting job late last season, and now the two will go face-to-face.
Milivojevic got off to a good start but has struggled over the last four games. He has just five touchdowns on the season with three interceptions and is averaging less than 175 yards passing per game.
This has unsurprisingly been a run-first offense under Fitzgerald, with the duo of Camryn Edwards and Jaziun Patterson leading the way on the ground. The offensive line has been a major issue for the Spartans, though, so neither of them averages more than five yards per carry.
The defense has also been unable to hold up after a strong start. This group is extremely thin up front, and teams have been able to move the ball with little resistance.
Michigan State has just seven sacks all season, 114th in the nation. The Spartans’ pass rush has been non-existent and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to pick them apart.
The Spartans have allowed 30+ points in three straight games and have allowed eight passing touchdowns in three games.
The lack of depth across the board on defense has just been a major issue, especially late in games.
We have the classic double-revenge game here in East Lansing. Fitzgerald faces off against the school that fired him for cause and smeared his reputation. And Chiles returns to the school where he was benched and essentially run out of town.
Chiles said, “Hell yeah,” when asked this week if he was excited to return to Spartan Stadium. He said that football has been fun again this season after not having much excitement the last two years. He’ll get to make a statement on Saturday against the quarterback that took his job.
And I think that he will.
Chiles has been miles better this year than what we saw at Michigan State. The last two seasons, he was chaotic and reckless every time he dropped back. You never knew what was going to happen with him. Sometimes things went great, but more often than not, it went terribly.
This season, though, Chiles looks much calmer and in control. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is putting him in a much better position to succeed. He has yet to throw a single interception and is completing over 71% of his passes, the best mark in the Big Ten and 11th in the country.
The biggest reason for his improvement is likely just that he isn’t being asked to do everything anymore. Michigan State had a non-existent run game over the last few seasons and was top-35 in passing rate.
Northwestern is extremely balanced on offense this season, and it has made it more effective in all areas. The Wildcats sit 43rd in rushing success rate, but 18th in rush explosiveness. Komolafe averaged over 5.5 yards per rush attempt, and Himon has five 30+ rushes already this season.
We’ve already seen the run game completely take over against Penn State. They should be able to do the same against an 88th-ranked Michigan State run defense.
All of this has allowed Northwestern to also rank 10th in passing success rate. Michigan State has no pass rush to speak of, which is when Chiles has found himself in trouble in the past. He should have all day to sit in the pocket and find Griffin Wilde on Saturday.
His counterpart in Milivojevic has really struggled this season and won’t be able to keep up with Chiles on this Northwestern offense. While Fitzgerald will likely be the main story Saturday morning, I expect Chiles to be the one who exacts his revenge.
Pick: Northwestern -7 (-115, BetMGM | Play to -8)