The US is building more fossil fuel infrastructure than at any point in a decade, even as new wind and solar farms remain cheaper than new gas plants. A report from the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy shows the shift gathering pace while renewable energy growth slows and electricity demand accelerates.
Key takeaways
- Fossil fuels reached 30% of planned new capacity by the second quarter of 2026.
- Renewable projects face a 4.9% cancellation rate, against 2.9% for fossil fuel projects.
- New wind and solar farms cost less per megawatt-hour than new combined-cycle gas plants.
- Fossil fuels could represent 70% of the development pipeline by 2030 if current trends continue.
US fossil fuel infrastructure expands as electricity demand rises
Electricity demand is growing at its fastest pace in more than a decade as data centers, factories and electric vehicles draw more power from the grid. The expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure in the US comes alongside that rising demand, according to the report.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration were examined by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund together with research firm Atlas Public Policy. Their findings show a growing role for gas-fired generation in the projects being planned to supply electricity.
In 2023, fossil fuels supplied about 60% of US utility-scale electricity generation. The report’s authors warn that completing every gas project in the development pipeline could lock in higher electricity prices and more pollution for decades.
Trump policies constrain wind and solar projects
The Trump administration has favored fossil fuels while restricting wind and solar development through stop-work orders, blocked permits and removed tax incentives. President Donald Trump has also promoted fossil fuels as his preferred electricity source for energy-hungry data centers.
Low costs continue to drive a rush of wind and solar construction despite those measures. Many of the farms being built, however, belong to the last wave of projects benefiting from Biden-era incentives.
Renewables pass coal but face more cancellations
Wind and solar together generated more electricity than coal for the first time in 2024. Solar also led the growth in new electricity generation that year, accounting for 81% of added capacity.
That growth contrasts with the higher rate of renewable project cancellations. The report puts renewable energy cancellation rates at 4.9%, compared with 2.9% for fossil fuel projects.
Solar has become the cheapest electricity source across most of the world. In the US, the report’s cost comparison also favors new utility-scale wind and solar over new gas-fired generation.
Lower renewable costs contrast with a growing gas pipeline
According to the report, newly built utility-scale solar and wind installations cost an average of $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour, while new combined-cycle natural gas plants run $90 per megawatt-hour. Yet fossil fuels are taking a larger share of planned capacity.
Plans for fossil fuel infrastructure in the US rose from 5% of all new capacity in 2024 to 30% by the second quarter of 2026. If that trend continues, fossil fuels could account for 70% of the development pipeline by 2030.
Planned fossil fuel capacity would reach 68 gigawatts by 2030, according to the report—a 45% increase from construction plans six months earlier.
The costs extend beyond generating electricity. Gas and coal plants release air pollutants and climate-changing greenhouse gases, adding to health costs. Electricity bills have already risen nationwide as utilities upgrade grids and build infrastructure to meet growing demand.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.