What does “You Can See Everything” do for an encore following the biggest doc opening weekend in two decades? Topple a Batman villain… maybe.
The splashy Elizabeth Holmes doc from A24 will expand from 855 theaters to 2,600 this weekend as it continues its march towards becoming one of the highest-grossing docs of all time.
That increased rollout, coupled with a weeks-worth of critical buzz and zeitgeisty vibes, has the film from Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim primed for an unprecedented second weekend that could potentially see it grow to somewhere in the $20 million range.
In comparison, DC Studios’ horror film “Clayface” is tracking to open this weekend in the mid to high $20 millions — earlier forecasts put it around $30 million. The James Watkins-directed movie was made on a far cheaper budget of around $44 million — a shoestring amount compared to most comic book fare — so it won’t have too big of a hill to climb to be profitable.
“An R-rated, body horror take on a B-level Batman villain was always going to deliver a smaller audience excitement than a mainline superhero movie could. Early critical reaction is promising, however, and without a direct competitor in the coming weeks, positive word-of-mouth could help this stick around in theaters,” Daniel Loria of Box Office Pro tells Page Six Hollywood.
But the buzz around “You Can See Everything” makes it much more of a competitor to “Clayface” than anyone would have expected even a week ago. But A24 is eyeing an even greater prize: The film could challenge Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11” as the highest-grossing documentary ever.
And in one metric, “You Can See Everything” is already ahead.
Released in June of 2004, the anti-Iraq War doc opened to $23 million on a similar amount of screens as “You Can See Everything” (though ticket prices were far cheaper in those days, making that haul even more impressive in comparison). But it never went as wide as what A24 is doing with “You Can See Everything.”
In its second weekend, which came over the July 4th weekend that year, “Fahrenheit 9/11” expanded to 1,725 theaters and earned $22 million over the four-day weekend (though, as Loria points out, it dropped 32% if you’re only including the typical three-day weekend timeframe). It expanded to 2,000 theaters for its third and fourth weekend, earning a combined $18 million.
“‘You Can See Everything’ presents a difficult tracking challenge, as very few films like it have enjoyed this level of success,” Loria says. “We expect a bump for ‘You Can See Everything’ to somewhere around the $20M mark.”
When it comes to the doc taking the win this weekend over “Clayface,” Loria adds: “There’s certainly a chance for an upset finish, but it’s not one we’re expecting at the moment.”