N. Korea-China bridge nears opening amid signs of economic bargain: report

Scheduling the opening of the New Yalu River Bridge after a 12-year delay could signal a shift in economic ties between Pyongyang and Beijing, a think tank affiliated with the country's National Intelligence Service said early this week.

North Korea and China may have reached an economic compromise that could pave the way for opening the bridge connecting China's Dandong with North Korea's Sinuiju, the Institute for National Security Strategy said Monday. Pyongyang may have used the long-delayed project as leverage in negotiations with Beijing, the INSS suggested.

The assessment comes amid growing signs that the bridge, completed in 2014 but never opened to traffic, could soon become operational, potentially marking a turning point in economic cooperation between the two neighbors.

China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Wednesday that the bridge would officially open Thursday, and that the opening had been agreed upon following consultations between China and North Korea. It added that the two countries would hold a joint inauguration ceremony Thursday.

In a recent report titled "Prospects for the Belated Opening of the New Yalu River Bridge: Causes and Outlook," Kim Gyu-beom, an associate research fellow at INSS, argued that the prolonged delay reflected competing economic interests rather than political tensions or unfinished infrastructure.

Preparations for the bridge's opening have gained momentum, with customs facilities on the North Korean side nearing completion and China's border city of Dandong making the crossing's opening a priority for this year. North Korean and Chinese flags were also spotted at the bridge's northern entrance Tuesday, fueling speculation that an opening ceremony could take place as early as Thursday.

Kim said the opening had increasingly become a matter of when rather than whether, but cautioned against attributing the progress solely to improving bilateral relations.

The 3,026-meter, four-lane bridge was completed with Chinese funding but has remained unused due to delays in constructing connecting roads and customs facilities on the North Korean side.

The project faced further setbacks amid tensions over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs, international sanctions and the COVID-19 border closure. Despite a brief resumption of construction in 2018-2019 and North Korea's gradual border reopening in 2023, the bridge has yet to become operational.

Kim argued that expanding bilateral trade would not necessarily deliver equal economic benefits to both countries.

While the bridge would improve logistical efficiency for China, it could expose North Korea to a greater influx of Chinese goods, widening its trade deficit and deepening its economic dependence on Beijing.

According to the report, North Korea recorded a trade deficit of $1.85 billion with China last year, as international sanctions continued to restrict exports of key products, including coal, minerals, seafood and textiles, while imports of Chinese raw materials and consumer goods continued.

"Chinese goods could enter North Korea more quickly and in greater quantities, but there is no guarantee that North Korea would be able to sell more products to China," Kim wrote.

He argued that Pyongyang had little incentive to accelerate the bridge's opening if doing so would simply increase its trade deficit and dependence on its larger neighbor. North Korea may have deliberately delayed the project to strengthen its bargaining position in economic negotiations with China, according to the researcher.

North Korea resumed construction of customs and immigration facilities on its side of the bridge early last year. High-level exchanges between the two countries also resumed following North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit to Beijing for China's military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in September 2025, during which he held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Kim identified Xi's visit to Pyongyang in June this year as a potentially decisive factor behind the recent acceleration of preparations.

Following the summit, at which Xi called for the full reopening of border trade crossings and expanded practical cooperation, construction on the North Korean side reportedly advanced rapidly, raising the possibility that the two leaders had reached an understanding on the project.

Kim suggested that the countries may have found common ground on economic disagreements that had accumulated over several years, particularly over how to address North Korea's growing trade deficit with China.

Possible areas of negotiation included greater Chinese imports of North Korean products, expanded opportunities for North Korean workers abroad and arrangements allowing North Korean firms to process goods for Chinese companies.

The researcher stressed that these remained possible explanations rather than confirmed terms of any agreement.

"For North Korea, the bridge could be seen as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China, one that Pyongyang had no reason to rush into opening," Kim wrote.

"The key question is ultimately what North Korea secured in return for deciding to open the bridge."

China's calculations may also have shifted amid deepening ties between North Korea and Russia. Kim suggested that the recent opening of a road bridge linking the two countries across the Tumen River, along with expanding overland transport connections, may have prompted Beijing to accelerate efforts to open its own long-idled crossing with North Korea.

Once operational, the New Yalu River Bridge is expected to ease cross-border trade bottlenecks, though Kim predicted that trade would expand in ways that accommodate Pyongyang's economic interests rather than simply boosting Chinese exports. This could include greater Chinese imports of North Korean food, cosmetics and light industrial products, as well as expanded processing trade and labor cooperation.

However, UN sanctions, North Korea's concerns about excessive dependence on China and political risks facing Chinese businesses are likely to constrain further economic cooperation.

Kim concluded that the bridge's prolonged closure and potential opening underscored how even close political allies prioritize their respective economic interests.

"The fact that the bridge's opening is now becoming a reality signals that North Korea and China may have begun finding a new compromise in their economic relationship, which has struggled to find a way forward since the imposition of stringent sanctions on North Korea," Kim wrote.